While the market was able to recover its losses on the board over the week, Thursday set futures back to where they started. Cash trade remained lackluster and a couple dollars lower than a week earlier.
Live cattle futures climbed higher over the week but took a nosedive on Thursday, ultimately closing sideways. The December contract gained 40 cents to close at $174.75, and the February contract gained 85 cents to close at $175.32.
“CME cattle futures had staged an impressive rally off of last week’s lows until today, when the market threw itself into reverse and is now down over a couple hundred points,” Cassie Fish, market analyst, wrote in The Beef on Thursday.
“Actually, an unconfirmed rumor that Tyson Foods was hacked appears to be at least partially responsible for today’s fast and nervous sell-off,” Fish continued. “Cattle traders recall the short-term bearish impact of a JBS hack in May 2021 that disabled operations. That turned out to be a great buying opportunity in futures.”
“Tomorrow’s much anticipated UDSA Cattle on Feed report will be released,” Fish said. “If the hack rumor proves false, it would not be a stretch to look for some futures market price recovery into the report, given how much bearishness has been priced in the market.”
It was another slow week for cash trade. By Thursday, about 40,000 head had sold. Live steers sold from $175-178, and dressed steers sold from $281-282.
A mere 50,315 head sold on the cash market the week ending Nov. 12. Live steers averaged $179.96, and dressed steers averaged $286.14.
The national weekly direct beef type price distribution for the week of Nov. 6-13 was the following on a live basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $180.02.
• Formula net purchases: $188.03.
• Forward contract net purchases: $174.97.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $189.12.
On a dressed basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $285.54.
• Formula net purchases: $297.05.
• Forward contract net purchases: $284.97.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $297.90.
Slaughter through Thursday totaled 495,000 head, a couple thousand head more than a week earlier. Total slaughter for a week earlier is projected at 618,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending Nov. 4 was 636,337 head. The average steer dressed weight was 927 lbs., 1 lb. below the prior week.
Boxed beef prices were lower over the week. The Choice cutout lost about $5 to close at $294.72, and the Select cutout lost about $2 to close at $267.65.
“All of the slaughter volumes are well below the prior year by 5-6% yet box prices have struggled for a foundation troubled by declines in beef exports and increases in beef imports,” the Cattle Report wrote on Thursday.
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle futures followed the path of live cattle futures, trading higher over the week but experiencing losses on Thursday. The November contract gained 37 cents to close at $229.37, and the January contract gained $2.58 to close at $227.50
The CME Feeder Cattle Index lost more than $8 to close at $228.76.
“The October placement number is expected to be 6% over last year’s extremely low placement number,” the Cattle Report wrote of the upcoming Cattle on Feed report. “Any placement number under 10% over last year would be bullish given the low 2022 October placement number, but futures act like another leak of the report.”
Corn futures closed higher, with the December contract up a few pennies to $4.74 and the March contract up 11 cents to $4.93.
Kansas: Winter Livestock in Dodge City sold 2,162 head Wednesday. Compared to the previous auction, feeder steers 400-950 lbs. sold $6-10 lower. Feeder heifers 400-925 lbs. sold $4-8 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 773 lbs. sold between $225.25-232, averaging $227.88.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards sold 8,000 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers sold $5-10 lower with feeder heifers $7-12 lower at the mid-session. Benchmark steers averaging 765 lbs. sold for $243.
Nebraska: Tri-State Livestock in McCook sold 1,910 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, steers sold $10-20 lower and heifers were $12-24 lower. A group of steers averaging 700 lbs. sold for $214.
New Mexico: Roswell Livestock Auction in Roswell sold 1,264 head on Tuesday. Compared to a week earlier, steer calves 300-400 lbs. sold $5-8 higher, 400-500 lbs. sold steady to $8 higher and 500-600 lbs. sold $2-7 higher. Heifer calves 300-350 lbs. were $2 higher, 350-400 lbs. sold $10 lower, 400-500 lbs. were $1-5 higher and 500-600 lbs. sold sharply lower. Feeder heifers 600-650 lbs. were $10 higher.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 8,750 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers and heifers were very lightly tested. A few feeder steers sold $5-10 lower, and a few feeder heifers sold $8-12 lower. Lighter weight long-weaned calves suitable for wheat sold $10-15 higher, and heavier weight and unweaned or short-weaned calves sold $4-8 lower.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction in Worthing sold 3,987 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, light steers 550 lbs. were steady and 600-750 lbs. sold $11 lower. Yearling steers 850 lbs. were steady, and 950 lbs. sold $8 lower. Light heifers 500-550 lbs. sold $4-8 higher, 600 lbs. sold steady and 650-750 lbs. were $10-12 lower. Yearling heifers 800 lbs. traded $8 lower, and 850 lbs. were steady. Benchmark steers averaging 730 lbs. sold between $216-239, averaging $225.29.
Wyoming: Torrington Livestock in Torrington sold 6,110 head on Wednesday. Compared to the previous sale, steer calves traded steady and heifer calves traded $2-5 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 783 lbs. sold from $232-238, averaging $233.68. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor
