Sometimes reports just don’t make full sense. That’s how many felt when USDA released their last Cattle on Feed Report for 2024. The report is continuously used as an indicator of market trends, but the last report felt mostly out of touch. In this report, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) showed a 4% decline in cattle placed in feedlots as of Dec. 1 compared to December 2023, while only being down 1% in total marketings for the same time.
With the smallest calf crop in over 70 years, the markets finally responded in the last several weeks with a strong rally that saw cattle driven up over $15/cwt into record levels, which helps to set up a strong marketing year in 2025. The calf crop that is anticipated in the coming season is still anticipated to be even smaller than the prior year’s, which really makes someone wonder why the NASS reports have continued to bolster numbers that just don’t seem to be there. Cattle marketings across the nation were helped by several factors including the U.S./Mexico border being shut down to imports due to the recent discovery of the New World screwworm on Mexico’s southern border. Weather patterns in areas reliant on moisture for fall turnout feeds were nearly all hit with timely rains and lighter cattle went on an immediate strong rally. On top of this, interest rates have continued to decline; although they are still much higher than just 36 months ago, the indication is that rates are going to continue to decline. Combining these factors plus many more, it results in the biggest market driver, which is optimism.
Over the last few years, even with a strong calf market, that feeling just hasn’t surfaced. While there have been occasional days when it seemed to break through, they were quickly overshadowed by caution, fear, uncertainty and nervousness. Many cattlemen would often quote feelings of 2015 and how they weren’t sure they could stomach another downturn like that. It’s almost been like we didn’t believe the market would treat us well again.
While the bred female market also had a rally from mid-November through the end of the year, the numbers of bred females marketed weren’t enough to push the needle in the marketplace this coming year. It just shows some optimism cattlemen are now feeling and there’s excitement again for this market to continue to stay strong through the next year. I do, however, note the number of dispersions. For many, though unfortunate for the future of agriculture, there has continued to be herd dispersions at all these cow sales this fall. Some ranchers have looked at this as an opportunity. I cannot blame them, though as painful as it is to see some of these ranches sell their herds
As the nation rolls into a new calendar year, there’s a renewed sense of optimism that has become infectious across the livestock world. While we look back from time to time and remember what taught us lessons—both good and bad—we have to remember why we do this. There are adversaries to our lifestyle, to our product, to what we stand for and who we are. While it’s sometimes easiest to react with a mirrored response of anger and resentment, we have to remember to give an answer that would represent our industry as a whole. We have to hold our representatives accountable for our best interests. By representatives, I mean both elected and those who represent our interests through industry groups.
Right now, our industry feels poised to continue to have success. We cannot be lazy in our efforts to raise the best livestock we can. Individually we need to be representatives of our industry and way of life. We need to remember that markets don’t always stay high and remain mindful of preparing for downturns to ensure we can withstand them. I am personally very anxious with excitement for the next year. There are many factors from an economic outlook, a policy outlook and a market outlook that are aligning to continue a great year for livestock producers. I wish you all the upmost success, whether you are raising, feeding or processing livestock.
We are so grateful for your role with WLJ. Without the people who continue to rely on WLJ for their source of information and a place to promote their business, we don’t move on to conduct business in our 103rd year. From a bank note at the Los Angeles Stockyards that marked the birth of this publication to where we stand today, we are beyond humbled by your support. Today, we feel very optimistic for our future. We hope all of you have had a joyous holiday season and wish you all a happy, healthy and prosperous new year! — LOGAN IPSEN
