Fall is finally setting in, and it’s such a rewarding time for cattlemen and women. We’re all very busy on our operations with fall gathers, processing cows and calves, and weaning. The fruits of your labors are coming to fruition. Progress (or the lack thereof) manifests itself in the form of a calf crop ready to go on to the next phase. All the decisions that were made over the past couple of years are waiting to board the truck. Decisions like where to buy bulls or bred females, feed rations for the cowherd, selection pressure for keep versus cull and so on all play an impact on the product that’s been marketed with your reputation riding along with them. Decisions made in the sorting alley will have years of repercussions.
Then, you turn back to the cowherd and it’s time to see how they did. How did preg rates go? How do they look? What needs to happen from now until the next calf crop arrives? All these things a person must ask themselves in preparation for the next calving season. If you’re a fall calver you’re obviously looking at a new calf crop and making decisions for the next year as it’s almost breeding season again.
It’s oftentimes so difficult to inflict change on an operation. So many times, a management practice continues to happen because that’s how Dad or Grandad did it. There’s a feeling of safety knowing that someone else did it one way, so you’ll do it that way too. It’s the way we were taught, so it’s the way that’s comfortable. How much risk is there to your operation in continuing to manage in this way?
“People want to change everything and, at the same time, want it all to remain the same,” said novelist Paulo Coelho. This is so true in cattle production. We want results now but are so afraid to make change. We all understand the quote about insanity—doing something the same way and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. I often look around our operation and ask myself what needs to change. The answers are usually pretty easy to find, but the action to make the change is the most difficult part.
The question that comes up most in conversations right now is “How long is this market going to last?” Each month, a combination of data points come to light, and most of them center around our national cowherd. We have one of the smallest calf crops to market in several decades but what is the cattleman’s reaction to this market?
Currently, the cattleman’s reaction is consistent with their culling. We see this in cow slaughter numbers, and right now our nation’s cowherd will be smaller in 2024 than it started in 2023; that’s if historical trends in the fourth quarter of the year remain steady. The cow market is holding plenty strong with most cows worth well over $1/cwt. That’s a pretty strong incentive to not waiver culling practices in the name of expansion. I’ve stated in numerous columns this year that input costs and interest rates have a lot of pressure on a cowherd right now, and I feel cow culling will continue.
Heifer marketings through video companies and sale barns that I rely on for info have all said they’ve seen a steady number of heifer calves being marketed, meaning additional retention hasn’t started happening yet. We haven’t entered the expansion phase. We cannot forget how brutal winter was to many of our cattle producers. I’ve heard death losses reached as much as 35% on young calf crops, and it’s showing itself in today’s pressure. The financial loss has to be absorbed somewhere and I think the desire to keep a heifer calf is outweighed by financial pressure to sell her.
What this adds up to is that we’ve got more time in the market we have today. This market is being propped up and it doesn’t look to change for quite some time. The external factors that are yet to be seen are weather conditions going into winter, inflation/recession concerns, D.C. chaos and so on. Cow-calf margins look to continue to improve while feeders are still operating in the positive, though that number is slowly shrinking. Packers have slowed production down to accommodate tighter supplies but have seen their margins disappear rapidly, and the average loss is nearing $100/head.
It’s a great time of year and the appreciation for our way of life shows itself every day. We will be watchful on cow and heifer marketings through the end of the year, but for now, it’s time to enjoy shipping cattle on these cooler mornings. — LOGAN IPSEN
