Spoken by the dying Julius Caesar after seeing his friend Brutus among his assassins: “Et tu, Brute?” with the modern interpretation as “You too, Brutus?” This is how many cow-calf producers were feeling after President Donald Trump met with the president of Argentina and remarked that they “worked their magic” to bring beef prices down. “The price of beef is higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon,” Trump said, to the astonishment of his loyal rancher following. Since then, chaos has ensued across the beef production sector, with all futures contracts closing limit down on the following day (Oct. 17).
President Trump soon doubled down on his claims, saying he was the sole reason for the high cattle market. In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed, “The cattle ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put tariffs on cattle coming into the United States … If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years — terrible!”
Mr. President, producers have had a really tough decade. After enduring market collapse driven by mass collusion that crashed a market that only lasted 18 months, suit after suit has proven collusion among the Big Four—not the free market at work. Yes, heifer retention was fast and contributed to high prices, but not to the extent of driving 100,000 producers out of the marketplace. It is painfully obvious that the commander in chief doesn’t understand drought, cattle cycles, markets or input costs. I will, however, say that I believe Trump’s follow-up online rant was out of anger after a livestock group in D.C. refused a sit-in meeting with him following his first statements. The timing makes sense.
Following his initial remarks, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall sounded off in a public statement saying, “NCBA’s family farmers and ranchers have numerous concerns with importing more Argentinian beef to lower prices for consumers. This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices.” Woodall cited Argentina’s deeply unbalanced trade relationship with the U.S., where the U.S. has brought in plenty of Argentina’s beef, but has exported very little of ours to them. Woodall also underscored ongoing livestock health issues in Argentina.
R-CALF, USA also released a statement urging the president to manage imports, restore mandatory country-of-origin labeling and put an end to the monopolistic control packers and retailers have over our supply chain, thus incentivizing America’s ranchers to rebuild and expand herds to meet national security needs and ensure beef prices are determined by a competitive market. Thousands of social media posts from across the industry have been circulating. There’s a lot of noise, so let’s sort through the dust.
The line between fact and opinion is small. The following statements are facts: Argentina is the sixth largest cattle-producing country behind the U.S., Brazil, China, India and the European Union, maintaining 54 million head of cattle in 2022. China is Argentina’s main export market, taking more than 70% of its exports. Argentina has the world’s largest beef consumption per capita. As of July, 72.5 million pounds of beef have been imported to the U.S. from Argentina equaling 2.1% of all U.S. beef imports. Further fact-finding shows the U.S. cow herd is operating at a 73-year low while carcass weights and cattle prices are at all-time highs. New price records were even set the day after Trump’s comments.
Consumer-based facts show continued support for beef. In 2024, U.S. fresh beef retail increased in value (9.3%) and volume (3.8%), with ground beef driving a significant portion of growth, according to a Beef Board Trust, Taste, and Trends article. More facts: The Big Four packers have spent millions, nearing billions, in settlements in price-fixing lawsuits from business practices and antitrust laws over the past decade. According to R-CALF USA, the number of beef cattle producers in the U.S. from 2017 to 2022 decreased by over 106,000, or about 15%. Lastly, one U.S. dollar equals $1,490.24 Argentine pesos, meaning Argentina has one of the weakest currencies in the world.
Now, for opinion. I believe government intervention in our current market creates an uncontrollable manufactured mess. Such intervention will alter the outcome of free markets at work. I think if packers import more beef, it will be marketed to consumers at the highest price they are willing to pay. Considering the previous fact about beef demand, I believe inflation-numb consumers will continue to buy beef at current levels, giving packers a better margin on imported beef due to the weak peso. A lot of empty feedlot pens are still driving the cash market. It is also my opinion that President Trump says a few things that are not very presidential. Presidents sometimes do that. President Joe Biden said some things that didn’t make any sense. And President George W. Bush sometimes made up his own words.
The biggest annoyance in all of this is that the majority of farmers and ranchers supported the president in his re-election bid. He needs to do damage control to return support to those who have supported him. I think Trump’s policies are generally sound, and I vehemently believe his cabinet is filled with sound minds. This awful soundbite and subsequent social media post delivered a dagger in the backs of loyal voters. I also believe he was largely speaking to consumers for whom high grocery store prices are top of mind. Let’s remember that supply and demand are at play in our cash markets, and ignorant comments can’t erase a decade of struggle in which we finally feel some reprieve. Market fundamentals are still alive and well. — LOGAN IPSEN
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