MEAT shortages, so far as the civilian consumer is concerned, continued to grow more pronounced during the month of March and with the increase of government set-asides of utility beef from 70% to 80% of federally inspected slaughter, effective April 1, the indications are that the situation of the civilian consumer in the matter of his daily or weekly meat supply will tighten still further during the current month and perhaps through May.
The current paucity of meat on the retail block is directly traceable to the sharp reduction in the country’s hog population and that the direct result of hog producers’ unsatisfactory, unprofitable operations during the first half of 1944.
In tonnage of beef being produced there is no statistical shortage. Marketings of cattle for meat purposes in March of this year increased 2% over the previous month and 11% over March of last year.
On the unfavorable side of the ledger, however, hog marketings for March, though somewhat larger than for February, were 51% less than March of 1944. For the first quarter of this year, 10,285,000 fewer hogs were marketed for meat and 1,376,000,000 lbs. less pork than for like period in 1944. Therein the real shortage of meats lies.
Naturally, this big reduction of pork has forced demand to center more largely in beef and with huge government buying for the military forces and lend-lease, the small increase in beef output has not sufficed by any means to satisfy actual demands.
Protests over the short supply of meat available to civilian consumers has been widespread throughout the country, and particularly vociferous in the larger centers of population with war plants. So loud did the cry resound that a committee of the U.S. Senate started an official investigation of the food shortage in an effort to find its cause and if possible suggest a cure. Nothing so far has come out of the senatorial probe that would suggest any immediate solution of the tight meat situation. You may kill off livestock through official proclamations or decrees. But it’s a different matter when it comes to growing another crop of pork or beef by government fiat. That is a job for the men and women of the farm, feedlot and range—not Washington bureaucrats.
Not all of the clamor and protest that is going up is coming from consumers. Packers and processors are also calling for relief, claiming that because of the narrowed spread between livestock prices and dressed meats they are running into financial losses and that an increasing amount of the country’s meats is being shunted into “black market” channels.
The widespread shortage of hogs is having its repercussions on the cattle end of the meat packing business. Now that packers cannot depend upon their pork output for a substantial part of their revenues, rising cattle prices, increased labor expenses and other fixed charges, and overhead costs on cattle slaughter have, according to reputable authorities in the industry, advanced to a point where operations are showing losses.
Obviously this has brought on pressure for a revamping of OPA price ceilings on dressed meats, but what the final outcome of the hearings being conducted in Washington will be is anybody’s guess.
How long packers will continue to absorb losses on their beef kill is another timely question that cannot be answered in an off-hand manner. The national packers have weathered many financial storms but there is general admission among the leaders of the industry that the present situation is different from anything they have experienced in the past. They agree that the “squeeze” they are now in has many threatening possibilities.
The Cattle Market
During the past month the cattle market has shown more than its usual ups and downs, but with no marked change in the general selling base.
Packers have been free to assert that current prices on many grades of cattle are top-heavy in relation to what they are permitted to charge for their products under OPA ceilings.
Practical top on fed steers on the Los Angeles market during March was $17.85, although on March 25 one individual steer brought $18.60, the first animal at any central market to sell at the OPA over-all ceiling. In March last year practical top was $16.50, with odd head up to $17.
At Chicago, where the ceiling is $18, the month’s high price on steers was $17.65. Missouri River tops ranged generally from $16 to $16.50, with an extreme high of $17. At San Francisco the month’s peak was $17.
Most of the steers going into slaughter during the month were grain feds. From a nationwide standpoint, feedlots must be depended upon for most of the beef for the next 60 days when grass fatted cattle will probably come into the picture more prominently.
Range and pasture conditions in California are on the whole far better than a year ago and above normal for this date and cattle are generally making good gains. Initial shipments of grass cattle from San Joaquin Valley are expected toward the close of April, but the movement of California grassfeds is not expected to gain much momentum till mid-May or later.
Cows and heifers continued to make up a rather bulky proportion of marketable supplies of cattle the past month. A top of $16.25 was paid sparingly for top heifers. This equaled the Los Angeles record summit for heifers at the Los Angeles yards. A few best cows landed at $14 to $14.50.
Calves were active sellers all month with prices, in general, running above the February scale. Good and choice calves and vealers sold at Los Angeles at $15.50 to $17.
Outlet was reasonably broad for all replacement stock offered, a generally firm tone featuring the trade. A few fleshy feeders ranged up to $15. Most of the better grade stockers cleared at $12.50 to $14.50. A few loads of good to choice stock calves brought $14.50 to $15.
The Hog Market
Other than the smallness of receipts there has been little to feature the hog trade during recent weeks. Prices have now been at ceiling levels for more than two months. Hogs have been gobbled up as fast as they arrived at maximum permitted price levels; virtually everything in the butcher line from 160 lbs. up to 300 lbs. and above has been selling at $15.75 at West Coast markets. Sows and stags are selling largely at $15.
Feeders have been scouring the country for feeding pigs. A range of $20 to $23 has been taking many of the good kinds of pigs. These prices are the highest paid in recent years.
Sheep and Lambs
The scarcity of other meats, particularly pork, tended to create a broad, healthy outlet for sheep and lambs.
Best lambs registered a top of $16.50, the highest of the year. Fat wooled ewes hit $8, while choice kinds were quotable to $8.50 or better.
Range and feed conditions in most of the early lamb areas are reported to be more favorable than a year ago and lambs are expected to move somewhat earlier and in better flesh than usual. — P.R. Manifold
