The latest analysis by the National Weather Service (NWS) shows the climate pattern transition to La Niña decreasing and not expected to occur until the fall.
According to NWS, climate models have shifted this summer toward predicting a weaker and later development of La Niña than initially expected. Models suggested La Niña would start during the summer in May and June, but recent forecasts now predict an early fall onset. Despite the delay, the consensus still indicates that La Niña will likely form this year and persist through winter.
The August El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook confirms that ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail across the Pacific. However, there is a 66% chance La Niña will develop in the fall, with a 74% likelihood it will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
A La Niña winter typically brings dry, warmer-than-average conditions to the southern U.S., often leading to severe droughts in California and the Southwest. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest usually experiences increased precipitation, while northern states can face colder-than-usual weather.
