The threat of enormous tariffs on goods and services imported into the U.S. from numerous countries has dominated the first six months of the Trump administration. President Donald Trump has used tariff threats to extract trade deals from the European Union, Japan and Indonesia. But the threat of new tariffs still hangs over Canada, Mexico and Brazil.
This leaves the U.S beef industry still at risk from new tariffs on live cattle and beef imports. They would obviously increase the price of animals entering the U.S. for feeding or for direct slaughter. Imports of feeder cattle from Mexico are still suspended due to New World screwworm disease. For the year to July 15, they totaled 230,638 head, versus 807,393 head in the same period last year. For the same period, the U.S. imported 295,240 slaughter steers and heifers and 88,122 feeder cattle.
A greater tariff threat comes regarding beef from Brazil. U.S. beef imports soared in May, reflecting the ongoing demand for lean manufacturing beef. Imports totaled 550 million pounds, more than 60% higher year over year and the second highest monthly import total behind January of this year, says USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). Brazil was the largest contributor to the increase with imports of 175 million lbs., more than five times the amount imported in May 2024. Year-to-date imports from Brazil are more than double the same period last year at 666 million lbs. Volume was up 347% year over year.
However, these imports will disappear because of Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on all Brazilian imports on Aug.1. This column was written before that date, but Trump had not backtracked at that point. Brazil could lose at least $1.3 billion worth of beef and livestock product sales to the U.S. in the second half of 2025 unless the nation can negotiate some relief from the additional tariff, says the Brazilian Meat Packers Association. The imposition of an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian beef on top of an existing tariff of 26.4% would take the tariff total to 76.4%. Trade would be unviable under those terms, say trade analysts inside and outside Brazil.
The U.S. is now Brazil’s second largest beef export destination after China. January through May, the U.S. imported 165,000 metric tons of Brazilian beef, up 85% on the same period last year. The Brazilian government on July 22 sent a formal message to Washington expressing its indignation over the additional tariff imposed on Brazilian exports. At the same time, the letter signaled Brazil’s willingness to engage in dialogue with U.S. authorities and negotiate a mutually acceptable solution. Should the 50% tariff be imposed and Brazilian beef imports stopped, U.S. end users like small hamburger chains and small grocery stores would be most impacted.
As widely reported, Australia is lifting its restrictions on imports of U.S. beef, allowing fresh and frozen products to enter the country. However, the move is largely symbolic as little U.S. beef is likely to be exported there until U.S. cattle numbers and beef production increase significantly. A U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement took effect in 2005 and was intended to allow U.S. beef to be sold in Australia. But Australia used numerous tactics to deny access, which angered and frustrated U.S. beef industry organizations. It has finally relented, saying it is satisfied with traceability programs put in place by the U.S. industry. Not surprisingly, the Australian beef industry is calling for a review of the process.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) said it greatly appreciates the Trump administration’s new trade agreement with Japan, which reassures and expands opportunities in the No. 2 export destination for U.S. beef and pork. Trump announced what he called a “massive” deal with Japan that includes reciprocal tariffs of 15% on the country’s exports to the U.S., with auto duties reportedly being lowered to that level. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Japan would invest $550 billion in the U.S. and the U.S. would “receive 90% of the profits.” Trump also said that Japan will “open their Country to Trade, including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things.”
In Trump’s first term, the critical U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement was reached. This returned U.S. red meat to a level playing field in Japan and restored its position as an extremely reliable market, said USMEF. It looks forward to continued growth and mutual benefits and thanks the team at the Office of the United States Trade Representative and the Trump administration for another agreement reached in the critical Asia Pacific region, it said.
In another trade development, the U.S. and the Republic of Indonesia reached a “landmark trade deal” on July 22, according to an announcement from the White House. The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade will provide both countries’ exporters “unprecedented access” to the other’s markets, the White House said. — Steve Kay, WLJ columnist
(Steve Kay is editor/publisher of Cattle Buyers Weekly, an industry newsletter published at P.O. Box 2533, Petaluma, CA, 94953; 707-765-1725. Kay’s Korner appears exclusively in WLJ.)
