Futures wavered midweek, perhaps searching for a market correction. While cash trade remains strong, analysts caution that technical fatigue could be setting in amid record highs.
Live cattle futures held steady over the $200 mark. The February contract gained about $3 to close at $204.47, and the April contract gained about a dollar to close at $201.
“The live cattle complex is currently being pulled in two very opposite directions as, technically speaking, the market is enduring what appears to be a midweek correction as the contracts are falling anywhere from $2 to $3 lower, all while the cash cattle market is again trading $6 to $7 higher in the southern Plains,” wrote ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst, in her midday comments Thursday afternoon.
She continued that it was difficult to pinpoint the reason for the technical turmoil on Thursday morning, but that it could just be signs of fatigue from contracts trading at all-time high levels.
Cash trade through Thursday totaled about 20,000 head. Live steers sold from $206-212, and dressed steers sold from $325-330.
Cash trade for the week ending Jan. 26 totaled 82,583 head. Live steers averaged $209.13, and dressed steers averaged $329.98.
The national weekly direct beef type price distribution for the week of Jan. 20-27 was the following on a live basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $208.96.
• Formula net purchases: $203.83.
• Forward contract net purchases: $191.58.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $205.42.
On a dressed basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $329.94.
• Formula net purchases: $323.82.
• Forward contract net purchases: $303.48.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $321.95.
“Despite talk to the contrary, there is no severe shortage of fed cattle supplies,” wrote Cassie Fish, market analyst, in The Beef on Thursday. “In actuality, fed supplies have been extremely stable at just above 25M fed cattle slaughter per year in 2023, 2024 and forecast for 2025.”
Slaughter through Thursday totaled about 484,000 head, on pace with a week earlier. Total slaughter for a week earlier is estimated at 599,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending Jan. 18 was 601,259 head. The average steer dressed weight was 954 lbs., 8 lbs. below a week earlier.
Boxed beef prices were slightly lower over the week. The Choice cutout lost about $3 to close at $327.48, and the Select cutout lost $2 to close at $315.90.
The highly anticipated annual Cattle inventory report was set to be released on Friday. Pre-report estimates had total cattle and calves on feed to start the year at 0.8% lower than last year.
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle futures traded mixed over the week. The January contract finished at $281, about $4 higher over the week, and the March contract lost about a dollar to close at $273.20.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index gained $1.27 to close at $279.45.
Corn futures traded steady over the week, up a penny on the March contract to $4.90 and up 2 cents to$5.01 on the May contract.
Colorado: Winter Livestock in La Junta sold 4,129 head on Tuesday. Compared to the previous auction, feeder steers sold $11-12 higher, with instances of sharply higher across all weight classes. Feeder heifers sold $5-9 higher, with instances of sharply higher across all weight classes. Benchmark steers averaging 766 lbs. sold for $267.50-287.25, averaging $276.66.
Iowa: Russell Livestock in Russell sold 3,746 head on Monday. Compared to the previous auction, steers sold mostly $2-9 higher. Heifers mainly sold $2-12 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 773 lbs. sold for $272.50-297, averaging $288.09.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 12,500 head on Monday. Compared to the previous sale, at the mid-session, feeder steers and heifers sold $5-10 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 783 lbs. sold from $267-281, $272.56.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 13,500 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, at the mid-session, feeder steers sold $5-10 higher and feeder heifers sold $5-8 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold unevenly steady. Benchmark steers averaging 764 lbs. sold from $274-283, averaging $278.62.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional in Worthing sold 6,547 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steers under 650 lbs. and 850-900 lbs. sold steady to $5 higher, and other weights traded $5-10 higher, with instances of $15-18 higher. Feeder heifers sold $5-10 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 722 lbs. sold for $285-312, averaging $302.69.
Texas: Lonestar Stockyards in Wildorado sold 1,605 head on Tuesday. Compared to the previous auction, feeder steers and heifers traded $3-8 higher. Steer and heifer calves traded mostly $10-15 higher on a light test. Benchmark steers averaging 769 lbs. sold for $272-284, averaging $281.36. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor
