Following a shortened trading week due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, cattle futures traded lower, pressured by volatility and delayed cash trade.
Live cattle futures trended lower over the week. The February contract lost about $4 to close at $232.37, and the April contract lost about $4 to close at $234.82.
“Traders don’t feel pressure to trade the contracts sharply higher as no cash cattle trade has developed yet,” ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst, wrote on Wednesday.
Cash trade through Thursday totaled less than 3,000 head. Live steers sold for $233, and dressed steers sold for $363.
Total cash trade for the week ending Jan. 18 totaled 73,083 head. Live steers averaged $233, and dressed steers averaged $365.
The national weekly direct beef type price distribution for the week of Jan. 12-19 was the following on a live basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $232.50.
• Formula net purchases: $235.54.
• Forward contract net purchases: $235.93.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $242.63.
On a dressed basis:
• Negotiated purchases: $364.56.
• Formula net purchases: $368.56.
• Forward contract net purchases: $372.14.
• Negotiated grid net purchases: $364.46.
“Packers last week decided to withhold bids until Friday, posing volatility risks for them but being squeezed by live prices too high to get beef sales close to a breakeven,” the Cattle Report wrote on Thursday. “Friday opening hour of trading brought them good news—a crashing futures market that set the stage for them to buy next week’s slaughter needs at lower prices.”
Market fundamentals did not allow that happen, the Cattle Report continued, despite falling futures. “The entire episode left most industry players marveling at the unexplained fall in futures prices.”
The futures’ actions can be explained by two possibilities: something in the news triggered the decline or someone is front-running a market moving announcement expected in the short-term future, the Cattle Report theorized.
The likely news headline would be the detection of more New World screwworm cases just south of the border, but “the impact on cattle markets would be almost impossible for any rational human to justify a bearish spin on the discovery.
“This leaves the front running notion,” the Cattle Report continued. “Already some have questioned the reliability of some government reports that influence food prices or inflation.”
The outlet speculated that the coming week would reveal potential market-moving news.
Slaughter through Thursday was about 447,000 head, compared to 469,000 head a week earlier. Total slaughter for a week earlier is projected at 562,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending Jan. 10 was 560,869 head. The average steer dressed weight was 985 lbs., 3 lbs. lower than the prior week.
“To battle horrific margins packers have cut slaughter levels this week, the (week to date) total down 19k head,” said Cassie Fish, market analyst, in The Beef on Thursday. “A sub-550k weekly slaughter is expected.”
Boxed beef prices trended higher over the week. The Choice cutout gained about $7 to close at $367.45, and the Select cutout gained about $2 to close at $361.73.
USDA was set to release its biannual Cattle inventory report on Friday.
“The report will likely indicate the beef cow herd has stabilized and very modest heifer retention has begun,” Fish said. “All in all from a supply standpoint, 2026 cattle supplies will be tighter again compared to 2025. The fact that cattle weights will also continue to increase has not been bearish and is completely ignored by bulls.”
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle futures also traded lower over the week. The January contract lost about $5 to close at $363.72, and the March contract lost about $5 to close at $359.27.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down about $2, closing at $367.41.
Traders were unwilling to aggressively push the market, Stewart said, “as still no fed cash cattle trade has developed, and demand in the countryside for calves this week has been mixed.”
Corn futures traded modestly higher. The March contract gained 4 cents to close at $4.24, and the May contract gained 5 cents to close at $4.32.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 9,000 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers sold steady to $10 lower, with feeder heifers selling steady to $7 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 765 lbs. sold from $350-369, averaging $361.43.
New Mexico: Roswell Livestock in Roswell sold 1,476 head on Tuesday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steer calves sold mostly $5-10 lower, with steer yearlings selling steady to $6 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 776 lbs. sold from $337.50-351 and averaged $344.96.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 9,800 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder cattle and calves sold steady to $4 lower on lesser quality. Benchmark steers averaging 781 lbs. sold from $348-371.25, averaging $355.41.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional in Worthing sold 6,156 head on Monday. Compared to the previous auction, feeder steers and heifers sold unevenly steady, except for 700-800 lbs. steers, which sold $10-15 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 772 lbs. sold from $358-385 and averaged $371.49. — Anna Miller Fortozo, WLJ managing editor
