It appears the anticipated adjustment in futures prices has arrived, bringing expected volatility as futures continue to decline despite strong cash trade.
Live cattle futures traded several dollars lower over the week, down more than $3 on the June contract to $211.17 and down more than $4 on the August contract to $205.85.
“Anywhere you turn, cattle traders are wondering if the market has topped for good or whether this is yet another top that will eventually be negated as the market trends ever higher,” wrote Cassie Fish, market analyst, in The Beef on Thursday.
Cash trade through Thursday afternoon totaled about 40,000 head. Live steers sold from $218-230, and dressed steers sold from $350-360.
“The packers still can’t gain an inch of leverage even with an $8/cwt break in the futures market,” Fish said. “Is that ultimately bullish or is the packer just making sure to own enough inventory to ultimately turn cash prices lower?”
Cash trade through May 12 totaled 83,514 head. Live steers sold from $220-228, and dressed steers sold from $355-360.
Slaughter through Thursday totaled about 459,000 head, compared to 469,000 head a week earlier. Total slaughter for a week earlier is estimated at 559,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending May 3 was 562,668 head. The average steer dressed weight was 938 lbs., 8 lbs. below the prior week.
Boxed beef prices were higher, with the Choice cutout gaining about $2 to $349.90 and the Select cutout gaining $12 to $339.18.
“April retail meat prices were reported yesterday and beef prices were dramatically higher,” Fish said. “Retail beef prices have been in a steep rally thus far in 2025 and that trend is expected to continue.”
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle futures were lower over the week, down a little over a dollar on the May contract to $296.14 and down more than $5 on the August contract to $295.82.
“More than anything, today’s move seems to be a sharp correction from traders’ big push last week/early this week,” wrote ShayLe Stewart, DTN livestock analyst, in her Thursday midday comments.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index gained $9 to close at $302.41.
Corn futures were modestly lower, down a penny on the July contract to $4.47 and down 4 cents on the September contract to $4.25.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 9,000 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers under 625 lbs. sold $10-25 higher, with heavier weights selling $3-15 higher. Feeder heifers under 625 lbs. sold $5-15 higher, with heavier weights selling from $5 lower to $5 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 771 lbs. sold from $300-327, averaging $305.40.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 6,000 head on Monday. Compared to the previous sale, feeder steers sold $4-6 higher and feeder heifers sold $2-6 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold mostly steady. Benchmark steers averaging 791 lbs. sold from $303-320, averaging $310.60.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional in Worthing sold 4,881 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steers and heifers sold $10-15 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 716 lbs. sold for $331-358, averaging $348.88. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor
