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Futures crash following Cattle on Feed report

Anna Miller Fortozo, WLJ managing editor
Oct. 27, 2023 4 minutes read
Futures crash following Cattle on Feed report

It was a topsy-turvy week for the market following a bearish Cattle on Feed report. Futures crashed close to limit down on Monday following the report’s release and were unable to muster up any support over the week.

“It is likely that some of the pressure seen Monday is focused on emotionally driven technical selling, but when prices continue to ratchet steadily lower through the day, it is impossible to expect buyer interest to develop,” DTN said on Monday.

Live cattle futures closed lower, with the October contract down $3.70 to $181.70 and the December contract down almost $6 to $179.32.

Cash trade through Thursday totaled about 40,000 head. Live steers sold from $182-185, and dressed steers sold from $288-290.

“Cattle owners are discovering very little has changed in the cash markets,” wrote the Cattle Report on Thursday. “The sellers still have the trade leverage to say ‘no’ and the processors still need cattle.”

Cash trade for the week ending Oct. 22 totaled 100,824 head. Live steers averaged $186.10, and dressed steers averaged $293.74.

Slaughter through Thursday totaled about 502,000 head. Total slaughter for a week earlier is projected at 638,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending Oct. 14 was 616,259 head. The average steer dressed weight was 927 lbs., 5 lbs. above the prior week.

Boxed beef prices were higher over the week. The Choice cutout gained a little over $2 to close at $306.85, and the Select cutout gained about $4.70 to close at $279.69.

“Boxed beef values continue to exhibit volatility as the rib gyrates up and down this week,” said Cassie Fish, market analyst, in The Beef on Thursday. “Considering beef production is down 5.3% as of last Friday, according to the USDA, if an end user or consumer wants to purchase a holiday rib, supplies are limited. Rib primal prices have been trading at record high levels for this time of year the last 3 weeks.”

Feeder cattle

Feeder cattle futures were sent lower over the week. The October contract lost about $3 to close at $240.55, and the November contract lost $8 to close at $236.50.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped more than $4 over the week, closing at $240.64.

“Right now, the cattle market—and feeder cattle trade in particular—is very emotionally driven, with very little time for the markets to settle down and stabilize,” DTN wrote on Thursday. “Moderate to wide price swings may continue to develop through the remainder of Thursday, limiting opportunity for buyers who have been waiting to step back into the market.”

Corn futures also nosedived over the week, with the December contract down 26 cents to $4.79 and the March contract down 24 cents to $4.93.

Colorado: Winter Livestock in La Junta sold 1,118 head Tuesday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steers in all weight classes sold $8 lower. Feeder heifers in all weight classes sold $4-8 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 780 lbs. sold between $225-241, averaging $239.79.

Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 4,425 head on Monday. Compared to a week earlier, feeder steers sold $8-14 lower and feeder heifers sold $9-16 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 722 lbs. sold from $241-249, averaging $243.02.

Nebraska: Tri-State Livestock in McCook sold 2,630 head Monday. Compared to the previous auction, steers under 500 lbs. and over 600 lbs. sold sharply lower on the day. Steers from 500-600 lbs. sold $1-6 lower. Most weights of heifers sold $10-15 lower, except 400-450 lbs. sold $3 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 687 lbs. sold between $240.25-253, averaging $243.64.

Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 6,600 head on Monday. Compared to the week prior, feeder steers and heifers sold $4-8 lower. Steer calves sold $2-4 lower, except a few under 500 lbs. that were long-weaned or fancy sold sharply higher. Heifer calves sold $4-10 lower. Benchmark steers averaging 771 lbs. sold from $231-244.50, averaging $239.79.

South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction in Worthing sold 1,638 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, steer and heifer calves sold with lower undertones. Yearling feeder steers sold $5-10 lower, and heifers sold with lower to much lower undertones. Benchmark steers averaging 731 lbs. sold for $249.

Texas: Lonestar Stockyards in Wildorado sold 1,206 head Tuesday. Compared to the previous auction, steer and heifer calves traded mostly $5-10 lower. There were not enough comparable sales for an accurate comparison of steers and heifers, but a lower undertone was noted. Benchmark steers averaging 783 lbs. sold for $227.

Wyoming: Winter Livestock in Riverton sold 4,596 head Tuesday. Compared to the auction last week, yearling steers and heifers traded $10-15 lower. Feeder steers and heifers traded steady to $10-15 lower, with instances of $20 lower. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor

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