Live cattle futures retreated from record highs this week, backing away from the $200 mark. Cash trade prices also look to be stabilizing.
Live cattle futures were lower, with the February contract down about $1.40 to close at $196.60, and the April contract down about a dollar to close at $197.67.
“The sharp, vertical rally in the last few weeks appears to have ended—for now or forever is unknown,” wrote Cassie Fish, market analyst, on Thursday in The Beef. “Most would argue not forever, but that is a different discussion.”
Cash trade through Thursday totaled about 48,000 head. Live steers sold from $200-205, and dressed steers sold from $318-327.
“Packers have been willing to top off their inventory positions this week at steady money today and there is a growing expectation that cash will trade lower next week,” Fish said.
Cash trade for the week ending Jan. 12 totaled 77,044 head. Live steers averaged $202.56, and dressed steers averaged $320.42.
Slaughter through Thursday was projected at 488,000 head, compared to 474,000 head a week earlier. Total slaughter for the week earlier is estimated at 589,000 head. Actual slaughter for the week ending Jan. 4 was 504,893 head. The average steer dressed weight was 959 lbs., 3 lbs. above the prior week.
“It feels like quite a few cattle were sold with time this week, but that remains unconfirmed until Monday’s USDA report,” Fish said. “Estimates for this week’s slaughter continue to hover around 600k head.”
Boxed beef prices were higher, up about $4 to $333.41 on the Choice cutout and up $11 to $319.38 on the Select cutout.
Pre-report estimates for the upcoming Cattle on Feed report set to be released on Jan. 24 peg total cattle on feed as of Jan. 1 to be 0.4% short of last year. Placements are projected at 100.3% of last January, and marketings are expected to be 101.4%.
Feeder cattle
Feeder cattle futures were mixed over the week. The January contract gained $3.83 to close at $273.45, and the March contract lost a dollar to close at $267.72.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up more than $5, closing at $278.04.
“Thankfully, demand continues to shine through as sales in the countryside remain utterly incredible, and with the board’s rally again today, eagerness and momentum from the contracts could help bolster stronger trade throughout the week,” Stewart said on Wednesday.
Corn futures saw strong gains, up 18 cents to $4.74 on the March contract and up 19 cents to $4.83 on the May contract.
Colorado: Winter Livestock in La Junta sold 5,940 head on Tuesday. Compared to the previous auction, feeder steers sold $2-6 higher, with instances of sharply higher across all weight classes. Feeder heifers sold $6-8 higher, with instances of sharply higher across all weight classes. Benchmark steers averaging 726 lbs. sold for $259-291, averaging $276.45.
Iowa: Russell Livestock in Russell sold 4,912 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, steers under 700 lbs. sold steady to $16 higher, while steers heavier than 700 lbs. sold sharply higher. Heifers sold mostly $7-21 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 713 lbs. sold for $276-309, averaging $301.56.
Missouri: Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage sold 8,500 head on Monday. Compared to the sale held two weeks earlier, feeder steers sold $5-20 higher and feeder heifers sold $3-20 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 758 lbs. sold from $263-279, averaging $273.49.
Montana: Miles City Livestock in Miles City sold 1,117 head on Tuesday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steers 450-599 lbs. sold sharply higher, with most sales $20-30 higher than the previous week. All other steers were too lightly tested to develop an accurate market trend, but higher undertones were noted. Feeder heifers under 450 lbs. sold mostly steady to $5 higher. Heifers 450-549 lbs. sold mostly $12-15 higher and over 550 lbs. were too lightly tested to develop an accurate market trend. A group of steers averaging 706 lbs. sold for $300.
Oklahoma: Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City sold 7,500 head on Monday. Compared to the last sale, feeder steers and steer calves sold $6-12 higher. Feeder heifers sold $4-8 higher. Feeder cattle sold up to $15 higher. Heifer calves sold $10-13 higher, and there were instances of steer and heifer calves selling up to $20 higher. Benchmark steers averaging 781 lbs. sold from $274-279, averaging $274.72.
South Dakota: Sioux Falls Regional Cattle in Worthing sold 7,167 head on Monday. Compared to the last auction, feeder steers under 800 lbs. sold $10-15 higher, and over 800 lbs. traded $2-6 higher. Feeder heifers sold $10-15 higher, with instances of $20 higher on 550-700 lbs. Benchmark steers averaging 721 lbs. sold for $290-313, averaging $301.10. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor
