The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report pegs feedlot inventories on April 1 at 11.638 million head, down 1.6% year over year. The 12-month moving average of feedlot inventories is 11.586 million head, the lowest average level since November 2023.
March feedlot marketings were 1.725 million head, up 1.1% year over year. Marketings in the first quarter of the year were down 2.2% compared to one year ago. Placements in March were up 5.1% from one year ago but were down 4% year over year in the first three months of 2025.
In the current cattle cycle, feedlot inventories peaked in 2022. The April 1 feedlot inventory was down 4.6% compared to April 1, 2022. The top six cattle feeding states in April 2022 (Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Iowa and California) accounted for 85.6% of the total feedlot inventory. Those same top six states currently account for 84.1% of the total feedlot inventory.
Since April 2022, feedlot inventory in Texas has decreased by 9.5%, Nebraska down 2.3%, Kansas down 6.8%, Colorado down 9.1% and California down 11.5%. Among the top six states, only Iowa currently has a larger feedlot inventory, up 4.6% since April 2022.
The April report also contained the quarterly inventory of steers and heifers on feed. Heifers on feed were 4.38 million head, down 3.9% from a year ago and down 4.3% from January. Heifers on feed are currently at 4.38 million head, 37.6% of the total on-feed inventory, the lowest quarterly total since July of 2021 and the lowest percentage since April 2020.
The heifer percentage has averaged over 39% for the past 16 quarters. This may be the first solid evidence that some heifer retention is beginning. It is not definitive, nor very strong, yet—the current heifer on-feed perecentage is still fractionally above the long-term average percentage (the red line in Figure 1).
During herd expansion the heifer percentage is expected to drop below 35% for several quarters. The next quarterly update in July may confirm the declining heifer on-feed percentage and heifer retention if the percentage drops below 37%. — Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist
