The latest forecast published by the National Weather Service suggests that El Niño is likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s spring.
According to the most recent forecasts, there is a greater than 55% probability of at least a “strong” El Niño lasting through January-March 2024. Additionally, there is a 35% chance of this event becoming “historically strong” for the November-January season.
Above-average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean were indicative of a strong El Niño, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the amount of warm water under the surface isn’t quite up to the October levels seen during the strong El Niño events in 1982, 1997 or 2015.
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“The strength of an El Niño event matters because the stronger the event, the more likely we’ll see the characteristic changes in temperature, rain and snow, and other impacts,” NOAA said. “It doesn’t necessarily mean that the impacts themselves will be so much stronger, but it makes the expected El Niño impacts more likely to happen.”
