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Dittmer’s Take: Fall developments

Steve Dittmer, WLJ columnist
Sep. 15, 2023 4 minutes read
Dittmer’s Take: Fall developments

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One long-term political commentator said recently that there are more Americans realizing that what the Democrats and the Biden administration are doing to this country is not coincidental or dumb or ill considered. It is intentional. It is the plan.

Perhaps the breaking point was President Joe Biden’s response to complaints about rising gasoline prices. He cut off part of an upcoming Gulf oil lease auction, imposed further restrictions on existing Gulf platforms, restricted drilling on 13 million acres in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and canceled the last remaining leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. An Alaska state agency held the leases, said the cancellations were illegal and would sue. Gasoline, diesel and natural gas that power transportation, manufacturing and Mom’s trips to the grocery store are more than ever targets for a merciless Biden. He is punishing Americans right in their daily lives.

A major wind farm developer handling huge U.S. wind projects has announced the planned projects won’t cash flow unless American taxpayers pony up more subsidy money. Stories vindicating many people’s skepticism of turning the country into all electric vehicles (EVs) for families, freight and buses are everywhere.

That’s on top of raising the Corporate Average Fuel Economy mileage standards and cutting permissible tailpipe emissions to almost unattainable levels.

Congress is running up on the end of the federal fiscal year on Sept. 30.The House leadership wants to pass all 12 appropriations bills before then. They may need a short-term continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown. But the Democrats want more spending provisions, and the Republican Freedom Caucus wants to cut spending. It could be a nasty fight.

If you are thinking of trading pickups, you might want to buy one off the lot rather than order anything long-term. The United Auto Workers (UAW) union is girding for a strike, and it might not be over quickly. The Big Three is kow-towing to Biden’s EV religion and the union knows that building EVs takes 40% less labor. That is projected to eliminate 500,000 automakers’ jobs. UAW members are also unhappy that wages are falling behind inflation. And many EV batteries and parts will not be American manufactured.

You may not feel it, but the Atlanta Fed, which carefully tracks and projects GDP for future quarters, expects third quarter GDP to be over 5%.Rising energy costs will likely push inflation higher into the threes for the quarter. No one knows, but the betting is that the Fed will pause interest rate hikes at their late September meeting.

For cattlemen, an even more relevant figure is this: the average household is finding expenses are totaling over $700/month more since Biden took office.

Along the theme of raising costs, USDA is providing $15 million to 32 state attorneys general (AG)for—get this—an “Agricultural Competition Challenge” to see if they can find some anticompetitive activity or antitrust violations in agricultural processing. Not sure if that sounds more like a bounty hunt or a made-for-TV reality contest.

Trial lawyers and plaintiffs have chased the big packers for decades, without success, including a recent double series against poultry integrators and a beef case recently dismissed in Minnesota. That ground has been well-plowed. The odds are against new successes for the trial attorneys.

That means the ground left to plow is going to be the small and medium processors and the family-owned firms the agency claims to want to foster. USDA has been eager to give out funds to help any size or brand-new packers, with the established bigs ineligible. I’m not sure turning loose state AGs to try to find something to enforce or sue medium or small packers is a great way to serve cattlemen, processors, and retail and foodservice operators or consumers.

An antitrust case implies a big player able to manipulate and affect prices and marketing in a major region or nationwide. The medium and small fry do not seem to fit that target definition.

Thanks to the beef industry’s assiduous efforts to raise quality and consistency, consumers are still willing to buy beef at higher prices. The rib prices are holding up well. Interestingly, the round is also, because some consumers are trading down more to ground beef, boosting lean beef prices for grinding.

I took a picture of a giant banner over the Sam’s Club beef case when I got my Prime grade brisket. It read, “Only the top 10% of all beef in the U.S. is rated USDA Prime.”

Not long ago those figures were 1-2%.The beef production chain should be proud.— Steve Dittmer, WLJ columnist

(Steve Dittmer is the author of the Agribusiness Freedom Foundation newsletter. Views in the column do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WLJ or its editorial staff.)

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