As frost and snow spread across the country, there is still corn in the fields.
According to the most recent Crop Progress report (Oct. 21), 86 percent of the corn crop was mature. This was down 11 percentage points from the five-year average of 97 percent, and down 13 percentage points from last year’s 99 percent at the same time.
The current corn condition is slightly lower than last year’s, 56 percent called good or excellent compared to 68 percent.
Reports of corn harvested were similarly lagging at 30 percent complete, compared to the five-year average of 47 percent and last year’s 48 percent.
This is the slowest corn harvest seen since 2009. It was hampered by wetter and colder weather in many states on both ends of the growing season. A wetter-than-normal spring this year meant wet—and in some places, flooded—fields that prevented plantings. This slow start meant a shorter growing season for many areas of corn country. Similarly, a wetter fall in many areas has also delayed harvest work to get the crop out of fields.
Most of the states with the slowest-maturing corn are also those that saw their historic first frost dates come and go up to a month ago, according to the National Weather Service.
According to University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension information, negative impacts of frost on late-season corn depend on how cold things got, for how long, and at what stage of maturity the corn was when it was hit. If corn had already reached the black layer stage of maturity, no yield damage generally results regardless of freeze intensity and duration. Contextually, the “maturity” gauge in the Crop Progress report refers to the R6 black layer stage.
Various USDA reports, including the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE, Oct. 10) and Feed Outlook report (Oct. 15), have projected production declines in this corn crop, largely as a result of the weather.
“Corn production is forecast at 13.779 billion bushels, down 20 million as a decline in harvested area more than offsets an increased yield forecast,” summarized the WASDE report. The Feed Outlook report was more specific, saying: “The third survey-based estimate for the 2019/20 corn crop lowered harvested acres by 200,000 and raised yield 0.2-bushel per acre, lowering the crop projection by 19.8 million bushels this month.”
Cold Storage report
The monthly Cold Storage report came out Oct. 22 and showed the stocks of beef in freezers around the country in September at 464.2 million pounds were down 1 percent from August, and down 8 percent compared to September 2018.
The largest declines in cold storage stocks of beef came from beef cuts, down 28 percent compared to September 2018. Boneless beef stocks declined 6 percent year over year.
“The latest Cold Storage report may be construed as supportive for beef and pork prices in the final quarter of the year,” commented Wednesday’s Daily Livestock Report (DLR). They additionally noted that for the past five years inventories have usually increased in September at an average of 5.5 percent compared to August stocks, making this year’s September stocks unusual.
“We see the m/m (month over month) decline in beef inventories as particularly bullish for prices later this year as end users will look to bolster their positions ahead of the holidays,” the DLR continued. “The beef cutout has been trending higher in the last two weeks, largely due to higher prices for middle meats. Lean beef prices are significantly higher as well.” — WLJ
