After a strong early season, January brought drier-than-normal conditions throughout most of the state, leading to a decrease in snowpack percentages and decreased streamflow forecasts. As of Feb. 5, statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) is at 90% of median, 5% lower compared to early January, reflecting a muted accumulation period. January precipitation continues at below normal levels at 77% of median an improvement from December’s 69% of median.
Water year-to-date precipitation as of Feb. 1 is below normal at 91%. The January storm cycle was largely uneventful with modest accumulations. The average SWE delta from Jan. 1 to Feb. 6 is 2 inches with the highest SWE delta at the Tower SNOTEL showing 7.9 inches of SWE for this period.
Compared to this time last year, most basin snowpack conditions are slightly higher with the exception of the combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan River basin at 66% of median SWE, a 10% drop from this time last year. Reservoir storage remains relatively unchanged, with 94% of median statewide as of the end of January. This is a slight decline from 100% of median this time last year.
Reservoir inputs and outputs have remained steady and no significant changes are expected until spring runoff begins. Streamflow forecasts have decreased since January, now at 89% of median, down from 98% at the start of the year. This reflects the persistent dry conditions through January.
January saw significant temperature swings statewide. A sharp cold spell in mid-January set new record lows. This was followed by record-high temperatures in late January and early February. Snowpack and streamflow forecasts will remain sensitive to upcoming storm activity, particularly in southern basins where conditions have continued to decline. Near-term conditions from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s six- to 10-day outlook suggest mid-February may bring increased precipitation statewide, however January’s deficits could limit overall recovery.
Looking ahead, there are still roughly two months, give or take, until peak SWE, depending on location. Late season storms can still have significant impact and upcoming precipitation plays an important role in shaping spring runoff. — USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
