The future looks foreboding. Too cold and wet in some places, too dry and hot in others. Either one can pose problems to cattle producers in the coming year.
Short- and long-range weather and precipitation outlooks paint a problematic picture of the rest of winter and early spring. On the one hand, drought, higher than expected winter temperatures, and next-to-nonexistent snowpacks typify the southern and central corridors of the U.S. On the other hand, the northern border states of the nation are predicted to be colder than normal and get more precipitation that usual, in some places to extreme levels.
Dry times ahead
The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor (see Map 1) shows the country—all of the Southwest, most of the Central and Northern Plains, and large chunks of the South—are swathed in abnormal dryness and low-level drought. Pockets of extreme drought are developing in the panhandles of the Southern Plains.
The Seasonal Drought Outlook, put out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Climate Prediction Center, expects the drought conditions in the Southern and Central Plains to persist and/or develop through to the end of April. See Map 2.
To complicate matters, the Climate Prediction Center sees a high probability of both above normal temperatures across the entire lower half of the country through the end of April, and below normal levels of precipitation. The anticipated worst-hit area for these predictions are the Southwest, particularly Arizona and New Mexico.
The snowpack in the West shows a concerning situation. All of the southwestern states, many of the Intermountain states, and even reaching as far north as Oregon are seeing snowpacks well below the norm. Recorded snowpacks in Arizona, New Mexico, southern Colorado, and most of Oregon were less than 25 percent of the historical median as of the first of the year. Other nearby states such as California, Nevada, Utah and southern Idaho are doing better, but are still below the historical norm.
“Areas of southern Nevada and the desert regions of southern California and western Arizona finally recorded some precipitation,” reported Brian Fuchs of the National Drought Mitigation Center on Jan. 18, also noting that some Pacific Northwest regions also got rain.
“Even with the precipitation in Oregon, the water year continues to be well below normal for precipitation, which allowed for the expansion of abnormally dry conditions in Oregon, western Idaho, and southern Washington.”
In the short term—mostly the week of Jan. 21-27—Fuchs expects to see temperatures in the West drop 3-6 degrees below normal.
“This should help bring the snow levels down over the western United States, allowing for snow accumulation to take place.”
Frigid forecasts
While the southern portion of the country is expected to be too warm and dry, the northern band of the country is likely to be pummeled by cold and wet.
“Over the next five to seven days, the active pattern over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated to continue, with heavy rains along the coastal areas from Northern California up to Seattle,” predicted Fuchs, speaking mostly of the week of Jan. 21-27.
“Farther inland, precipitation should be widespread from Washington and Oregon into Idaho and western Montana, with the greatest amounts over the panhandle of Idaho.”
The Climate Prediction Center expects existing areas of abnormal dryness in the Northern Plains will improve or dissipate by April. It also predicts above normal levels of precipitation and below normal temperatures through the same period.
“We are certainly in the midst of a La Niсa event as sea surface temperatures across the central/equatorial Pacific continue to remain colder than average,” reported Tom Di Liberto of NOAA last week.
A “La Niсa event” generally means colder, wetter winter conditions in the north and produces erratic weather patterns. Predictions vary even among NOAA writers regarding whether this year’s La Niсa event will be mild or moderate, and how long it will last throughout the season. Some have said it will be cut short while others expect it to last through winter. — WLJ
