With an approaching deadline to agree on new rules for managing the Colorado River after the current rules expire in 2026, policymakers in the Upper and Lower Basin states are at an impasse and have released opposing plans.
The competing plans highlight the challenges in reaching a consensus on how to navigate the river’s shrinking resources in the future. Both sides stressed the need to reduce usage due to climate change. Still, the ongoing argument persists with the Upper Basin states calling for cutbacks from the Lower Basin, and the Lower Basin asserting all states need to reduce usage.
Upper Basin
The Colorado River Upper Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming submitted an alternative plan to the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) with modeling assumptions and operational guidelines for the management of Lake Powell and Lake Mead beyond 2026, as mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review process.
The plan addresses key objectives, including mitigating risks associated with diminished storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead and incorporating the latest scientific findings on climate change impacts. Additionally, the plan seeks to rectify the current imbalance between water supply and demand in the basin, adjust operations based on observed conditions rather than projections, and consider hydrologic shortages in the Upper Basin.
“We can no longer accept the status quo of Colorado River operations,” Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s commissioner to the Upper Colorado River Commission (UCRC) said in a press release. “If we want to protect the system and ensure certainty for the 40 million people who rely on this water source, then we need to address the existing imbalance between supply and demand.”
She continued, “That means using the best available science to work within reality and the actual conditions of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. We must plan for the river we have—not the river we dream for.”
UCRC commissioners said the plan focuses on building storage in Lake Powell to ensure a sustainable water supply for the future. They acknowledged the uncertainties ahead and said their goal is to promote a consensus among the seven states while addressing the Upper Basin’s long-term sustainability.
In the letter to BOR, the Upper Basin states said they would explore parallel activities outside of the post-2026 NEPA process to support Upper Basin interests, including voluntary conservation, flexible reservoir operations, and recognition of settled but undeveloped Tribal water rights in the Upper Basin.
Lower Basin
The Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada submitted a plan that not only considers water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell but uses “the total volume of water in live storage,” which includes the Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Wyoming, the Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado, the Navajo Reservoir in New Mexico and Lake Havasu in Arizona.
According to the plan, under typical hydrologic circumstances, the measures adequately safeguard around 13 million acre-feet (an acre-foot is 325,851 gallons) of water in active storage, constituting 23% of the total system capacity. This safeguard serves as a crucial safeguard against forthcoming operational uncertainties. The Lower Basin Alternative would manage water usage across all reservoir conditions: surplus, normal and reduction periods.
Under the plan, when the total volume contents range from 69% to 58% on Aug. 1, the reduction volumes for water users in the Lower Basin states and Mexico for the following calendar year will increase from 0 to 1.5 million acre-feet.
If the total volume contents drop below 58% but remain above 38% on Aug. 1, a reduction of 1.5 million acre-feet would be imposed on water users in the Lower Basin states and Mexico for the subsequent calendar year.
However, if the total system contents fall below 38% but stay above 23% on Aug. 1, the reduction volume imposed on water users in the Lower Basin states, the Upper Basin states and Mexico for the following calendar year would increase from 1.5 million acre-feet at 38% to 3.9 million acre-feet at 23%. Any amount exceeding 1.5 million acre-feet would be divided equally between the Lower Basin states, Upper Basin states and Mexico.
“We need new ways of thinking to solve problems that have been unresolved for nearly a century and solutions for future challenges like climate change and extended drought—that’s what the Lower Basin Alternative does,” Colorado River Commissioner J.B. Hamby said in a statement. “Each basin, state, and sector must contribute to solving the challenges ahead. No one who benefits from the river can opt out of saving it.”
Tribes
On March 4, UCRC signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with six Colorado River Tribes to encourage collaboration and pursue shared goals and priorities of the river.
The Jicarilla Apache Nation, Navajo Nation, Ute Mountain Ute Indian Tribe, Southern Ute Indian Tribe, Ute Indian Tribe and the Shivwits Band of Paiutes and the commission will meet every two months.
The MOU will not address matters concerning sovereign-to-sovereign relationships among individual Tribes, individual Upper Basin states and the U.S., as these matters fall beyond the jurisdiction of UCRC. The MOU aims to be inclusive of all Tribes and any Tribe not initially signatory to the MOU can join by submitting a written notice expressing their desire to participate.
“This MOU is a testament to our enduring connection to this sacred resource and a recognition of the critical role Tribal voices play in its protection,” Vice Chairman Lorelei Cloud of the Southern Ute Indian Tribe said in a statement. “Together, we are united in ensuring that the Colorado River flows, today and for generations to come.” — Charles Wallace, WLJ contributing editor
