Jan. 1, 2020 cattle inventory at this early date looks to be below a year ago slightly. Dairy cow numbers have edged lower since last year and will likely post a year-over-year decline. The latest milk production report showed the U.S. inventory was 9.315 million head, about 30,000 off from Jan. 1 of last year.
Beef cows remains the difficult number to pinpoint. Regional cow slaughter suggests beef cows are being slaughtered at a much higher rate in most of the regions except the Southern Plains. Total beef cow slaughter through 42 weeks of the year is up 2.9 percent. Heifer slaughter continues to post large gains compared to a year ago. Weekly heifer slaughter year to date is up 7.3 percent.
One interesting note is that heifer slaughter is on pace to slaughter about half a million head more than was in the “other heifer” category in the Jan. 1, 2019 report. That would indicate more heifers that were considered for replacement were pulled from the herd.
The latest Cattle on Feed report showed 39 percent of the on-feed mix were heifers. This suggests that the number of heifers held for replacement for beef-type animals will also likely be below a year ago. Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) is penciling in beef heifer replacements down more than 2 percent.
Dairy heifers held for replacement is also expected to be below a year ago, but fourth quarter milk prices have perked up and could influence the Jan. 1 number.
Steer slaughter is more than 2 percent below a year ago through the first 42 weeks of the year. Reconciling the steer slaughter deficit against 2018’s large 1.8 percent increase in the calf crop year from the previous year has been difficult. The calf crop and the number reported in steers 500 pounds and heavier both appear to be too high in last year’s report.
Unlike heifers, which could be held for replacements, a steer’s pathway is to end up in the slaughter channel, regardless if they were fed by farmer-feeders or larger inventory feedlots. — LMIC
