Dry conditions have caused major impacts throughout the state of California, and experts expect drought to continue for a third year.
The Department of Water Resources (DWR) recently conducted its third snow survey of the season at Phillips Station, west of Lake Tahoe, and found the snow and snow water equivalent to be 68 percent of average for the location for March. Statewide, the snowpack is 63 percent of average for this time of year.
“With only one month left in California’s wet season and no major storms in the forecast, Californians should plan for a third year of drought conditions,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “A significantly below-average snowpack combined with already low reservoir levels make it critical that all Californians step up and conserve water every day to help the state meet the challenges of severe drought.”
Although there were some early storms in the season, limited storms in January and February contributed to the below-average levels. The Northern, Central and Southern Sierra snowpacks are all just above 59-66 percent of average for March, impacting state watersheds.
“Even when we see large storms producing a lot of snow early in the season, all it takes is a few dry weeks to put us below average,” said Jeremy Hill, DWR’s Hydrology and Flood Operations manager.
Producers can visit DWR’s new website, California Water Watch, at cww.water.ca.gov to view current water conditions in their area in real time.
Subsidence continues
DWR also released new data that shows subsidence, the sinking of the land surface due to excessive groundwater pumping, continues in the state. The areas experiencing the most subsidence in water year 2021 included the San Joaquin Valley and the Sacramento Valley.
The San Joaquin Valley showed a maximum of 1.1 feet of subsidence, and the Sacramento Valley showed a maximum of 0.7 feet of subsidence in the region. Last year’s water year experienced subsidence of greater than 0.5 feet per year in more areas than the year prior. However, fewer areas experienced higher rates of subsidence than the last drought, which ended in 2016.
“Californians rely on groundwater during drought, so it’s not surprising that land in some areas is continuing to sink,” Nemeth said. “But it is good news that compared to previous droughts, subsidence is slowing.”
DWR plans to increase its monitoring to anticipate impacts to domestic and community wells, and it received funding last year to increase the collection and reporting frequency of statewide satellite-based subsidence data from annually to quarterly.
Drought costs
Last year, the drought cost the ag sector about $1.1 billion and nearly 8,750 jobs, according to a new University of California, Merced analysis. With the impacts on other economic sectors, total impacts are estimated at $1.7 billion and 14,634 jobs.
The report, “The Economic Impacts of the 2021 Drought on California Agriculture Preliminary Report,” was released March 1 and details the impacts of last year’s drought in the Central Valley, the Russian River basin and northern intermountain valley areas. Researchers developed estimates of economic impacts using surveys, reviews of hydrological information and remote sensing data and compared them to average conditions, along with the 2012-16 drought.
The report said there were at least an additional 395,000 acres of idled land—roughly 385,000 acres in the Central Valley alone with respect to pre-drought conditions due to drought-related water cutbacks.
Several parts of the Sacramento Valley, the west side of the San Joaquin Valley, Tulare County and Kern County were the most affected by drought. Other areas included the Russian River basin and intermountain agricultural areas in Siskiyou, Shasta and Modoc counties. The crops most significantly affected by increased fallowing include rice in the Sacramento Valley, cotton in the San Joaquin Valley, and grain and field crops statewide.
“Should dry conditions persist throughout 2022, a higher tier of adaptation measures may come into play to reduce economic impacts on agriculture and communities that host thousands of households relying on agriculture for a living,” said School of Engineering professor Josuй Medellнn-Azuara, lead author of the report.
The report also highlighted strong commodity prices, such as milk prices. In addition, the report noted while the beef cattle sector had to adapt to limited winter pasture and higher forage prices, “The state’s beef cow herd increased, as did its share of the national cow herd, leading to potential revenue gains.”
The 2020-21 water years were the second driest two years on record, according to the report. “Sadly, we are going to see more and more droughts like this, so we need better tools to anticipate and minimize the socioeconomic impacts,” said researcher and co-author Alvar Escriva-Bou, an engineering and policy expert at the Public Policy Institute of California. — Anna Miller, WLJ managing editor
