Feeders hold out for fed rally
Reports of very good Fourth of July beef demand and some early week
strength in both the futures and boxed beef markets gave fed cattle
producers some optimism for a stronger market last week. However, as of
Thursday, market activity was still almost nonexistent as packers were
waiting for asking prices to get in line with the previous week’s
market.
The only trade reported as of press time was 5-8,000 head in Nebraska at
$130 dressed, which was $1-2 stronger than two weeks ago. Thursday
morning packer bids were down to $128-129 in northern feeding states.
In the southern Plains, cattle feeders were asking mostly $84-85, but,
packers were still bidding mostly $80.
“We’re looking at a Friday trade, maybe even a Friday afternoon market,”
said one Denver-based market analyst.
Packers were reluctant to get into the market even at steady money,
compared to the previous week, because they are seeing negative margins,
again. Most analysts said that packer breakevens were between $81.50-82,
and that steady to stronger prices could move them to the minus side of
the ledger.
Retail beef movement over the three-day Fourth of July weekend was
called very good by several retail and market sources, which produced
some strength in the boxed beef market last Tuesday and Wednesday.
Almost 400 loads were sold Tuesday, while a 500-plus load day happened
Wednesday, which was a $1 jump in Choice beef and a 40-cent gain in
Select, compared to the previous Friday.
However, Thursday saw the boxed beef cutout fall $1.50 on Choice and
$1.10 on Select. Analysts said that heavier-than-expected slaughter
volumes during the previous few weeks were starting to weigh on packer
storage and that beef needed to be “firesaled.” It looked like Thursday
was going to be another 500-plus load day for boxed beef movement.
While the Fourth of July weekend was considered the best three-day
period for beef demand in almost a year, it was on middle meats and
other items associated with grilling. Chucks and rounds weren’t in big
demand and the supply was building. A lot of the inventory reduction was
on those primal cuts, sources said.
One central Plains retail buyer told WLJ, “Even with the new ‘steak’
cuts that are coming out of the chucks and rounds, there is just not
enough demand in the summer to swallow up that part of the beef supply.
We are also talking about fed cattle that are 20-30 pounds heavier,
compared to previous years, meaning there’s another 13-18 more pounds of
beef produced, and at least 50 percent of that is additional chuck and
round.”
For the week ending July 2, USDA reported that the fed steer average
live weight was 1,286 pounds, compared to 1,257 the same week a year
ago. That figure was also five pounds heavier than the previous week.
Analysts also said that recent slaughter volumes continue to eclipse
current beef demand levels. For the week ending July 2, USDA reported
652,000 head of cattle processed, compared to 643,00 head the week prior
and 646,000 for the same week a year ago. Most analysts concurred that
620-625,000 head of cattle was more than enough to supply current beef
demand levels, both domestic and export.
Northern feeders,
stockers stronger
The national calf and feeder cattle market was several dollars stronger
last week, however, most of that was due to the extreme rally seen in
markets in the central and northern Plains and Intermountain West
regions. Reports that drought is on the verge of ending or already ended
in most western states has strengthened demand for cattle to put on
pasture, specifically heifers, sources said. With more heifers going to
cow/calf producers, there are more steers available but fewer overall
cattle for feedlots, which means there is more demand for a dwindling
supply of feeder cattle.
Southern auction barns reported very limited offerings and even weaker
demand. Most of the weakness was contributed to the extremely hot
weather and the holiday “hangover.”
“Typically, feeder cattle this time of year hits a peak in the northern
areas of the country, and with weather conditions helping out pasture,
and hay production, there is even greater demand for grass cattle.” said
Derrell Peel, extension livestock economist at Oklahoma State
University. “We are dry here, but that’s a normal trend down here.”
While the Fourth of July kept a lot of auction barns closed for the
first half of last week, Superior Livestock Auction had a very large
video auction that was broadcast from Steamboat Springs, CO, last
Tuesday through Saturday, and prices were considerably higher.
Attendees at that sale reported heavy seven and eight weight cattle
bringing well over $115 per cwt, and 650- to 700-pound cattle back up
over the $130 range.
Peel and several colleagues still said the fed cattle prospects for the
rest of the year don’t appear to justify the current prices being paid
for fed cattle. Most analysts indicated, however, that feedlot operators
still contend they are better off feeding cattle even if they lose
money, rather than have empty pen space.
“I can see (cattle feeding) losses the rest of the year, but it is still
more beneficial for them to feed them rather than have no cattle at
all,” Peel said.
The CME feeder cattle index last Wednesday got over $116 per cwt, almost
$4 higher than the previous Wednesday. — WLJ
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