Beef slump strains feds
6, 2005
Memorial
day weekend was a big disappointment from a beef sales perspective, and
the fallout pressured fed cattle prices downward $2-4.
The boxed beef cutout was under serious pressure on the Friday prior to
the popular grilling weekend, being down nearly $5 for that day. Following
the anticipated big sales weekend, packers found themselves with large
inventories and held a midweek fire sale last week, with the Choice cutout
falling to $144.28. Trade volume was exceptionally large, with 807 loads
trading last Thursday and another 693 loads moving the day previous. The
boxed beef cutout was down nearly $15 from the prior week.
As a result, fed cattle prices were under pressure, and the market was
established at $85 live and $134-136 dressed in the central and northern
plains. Southern fed cattle trade still hadn’t materialized as of
press time last Thursday. Kansas and Texas cattle feeders were asking
for at least $86, however, packers were still bidding mostly $83-84.
Through midday Thursday, just over 100,000 head of cattle traded nationwide.
Slaughter levels remained fairly high considering the slower beef sales.
Slaughter for the week ending May 29 was 657,000 head, only 2,000 head
below last year. Last week was a short week and daily slaughter rates
averaged 122,000 head. The latest packer margin index showed packers earning
$9.35 per head, based on buying cattle at $87 two weeks ago.
Slaughter weights were also a concern to market analysts as they stay
heavier than a year ago. For the week ending May 27, average live cattle
weights were seven pounds heavier than a year ago. However, Jim Robb,
chief analyst with the Livestock Marketing Information Center said finished
cattle in the southern feeding states were almost 40 pounds heavier than
the same time last year.
Wholesalers have become tough buyers over the past two years, and with
the cutout dropping to its lowest level in several months they could become
more aggressive beef buyers. Beef demand during the first quarter of 2005
was called lower by 2.7 percent. The second quarter is expected to be
flat in relation to a year ago.
Boneless cow beef markets, which have been a bright spot in the beef markets
in previous weeks, were also softer. The 90 percent lean beef price fell
several dollars last week, to $142.65, and the 50 percent trim was at
$80.65. However market analysts contend that the manufacturing beef market
is supply driven rather than demand driven at this point. The cow beef
cutout was at $115.92, down nearly $10 from the previous week.
Slaughter cows are still in limited supply and trading in the low $60,
particularly for “fleshier” cows.
Calf, yearlings mostly steady
Feeder cattle and calf markets last week were being called mostly steady
on a nationwide basis, however, that was based on very light volumes being
offered across most regions of the country.
Later in the week, heavier weight cattle were seeing some price pressure
based on pessimistic summer fed market projections. From a calf and lighter
cattle standpoint, market analysts said that while cattle offerings were
smaller, the number of potential buyers for those cattle were pretty much
static with previous weeks.
“It is just not a good week to really get a read on where the market
is going,” said David Drake, broker with SW Livestock Inc., Tulsa,
OK. “We had buyers out there as did our other normal competitors,
but cattle were very hard to find. That resulted in prices staying probably
higher than they would have without the holiday hangover.”
For example, Oklahoma City Stockyards reported 1,500 cattle being offered,
compared to 15,000 the previous week, and a projected 12,000 head for
the week beginning June 7. Several other auction barns reported no sale
last week due to the holiday, including Joplin Regional Stockyards, one
of the largest central Plains auction barns for cattle.
Looking at market indicators, market analysts said they would be surprised
if both calf and yearling prices remained on an uptrend for the next several
weeks. Most sources said that projections for higher corn prices through
the rest of the year and beginning of 2006 and poor cattle feeding margins
should pressure calf and yearling prices.
Despite near-term corn futures contracts falling last Wednesday, they
are still 15-20 cents ahead of prices a few weeks earlier. For each dime
move in corn, a $3-5 per cwt opposite move is expected in the calf and
yearling cattle markets, according to market analysts. Some analysts,
however, said that with summer fed cattle breakevens already projected
at $90-plus, that a downward cattle market correction of $5-7 could be
expected for every dime increase in corn prices.
Breakevens for fed cattle being marketed now were called mostly $86-88
up north, while several sources indicated that a lot of southern cattle
feeders probably are figuring breakevens at $88 or higher. At an $85 market,
most southern cattle feeders could be seeing losses of at least $40 per
head, analysts indicated.
The CME feeder cattle index last Wednesday, was at $110.77 per cwt, about
40 cents below the previous Wednesday.
Calves and lighter feeder cattle were being supported not only by steady
demand on smaller volumes, but by projections for longer-than-normal summer,
fall and early winter grazing prospects across the country, particularly
in areas hit by drought over the previous few years.
While moisture has slowed plant growth down so far this spring, rangeland
specialists have said that once hotter temperatures become more consistent
that grass and other forage growth should be well above previous years’
levels and should result in more forage to be grazed into September, possibly
October. — WLJ
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