by WLJ
—Fed market rebound and lower corn provide added boost to strong
video auction prices paid for yearlings.
Fed cattle trade this week got an early start as short-bought packers
slowed production speed and started off with bids steady with the prior
week. Feedlots, on the other hand, held firm, looking for higher prices
for available fed cattle, which are reported to be in very current
condition. It appeared last week like cattle are also being pulled
forward to fill packer demand. Nebraska live trade started Tuesday at
$142 with live trade in a range of $89-90 although volume was reportedly
light to a single regional packer. Elsewhere, bids were still being
rejected last Thursday as feedlots used their market advantage to push
for higher prices. In Kansas and Texas, packer bids were at $88-89 live,
while dressed bids in Colorado ranged from $142-143 and in Iowa from
$140-142. Analysts last week expected live prices to reach the $91 live
and $141 dressed level before any major trade would occur.
The short-bought status of packers had them slowing their production
speed slightly last week as they attempted to stay out of the market as
long as possible and add value to cutout prices. Slaughter volume
through last Thursday was estimated at 497,000 head, well above the
previous holiday shortened week tally of 378,000 head, but lower than
the same period in 2006 when the total reached 501,000 head.
The bounce in the fed cattle market over the past six weeks shows that
feedlots probably could have avoided the sharp drop to the low $80 level
had they stood firm on asking prices. Occasional early week trade for
lower money in the north didn’t help the cause of southern Plains
feedlots which tended to market cattle later in the week. The past three
weeks have seen a continuation of the trend with southern feeders
generally trading higher than their northern counterparts. With tight
supplies of fed cattle in the immediate future, the summer low is likely
in place and prices should continue higher. The upcoming cattle on feed
report is expected to show placement levels about 12 percent below June
2006. Adding to the picture are the prices being paid by feedlots for
heavy weight placements for immediate delivery. Those cattle are being
purchased to fit into the late fourth quarter marketings, which are
trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in excess of $99. With
the recent corn market slide and the shortage of market-ready fed cattle
ahead, the market picture for cattle feeders is looking better than many
expected it to this year. However, retail demand will need to perk up if
the cash market is going to fulfill market expectations in the fourth
quarter.
HedgersEdge.com estimated last Thursday
that packer losses are at $3.80 per head, which is largely the result of
poor movement of beef at the wholesale level. Last Thursday, Choice
product was trading at $143.33, up 24 cents, while Select gained 30
cents by midday to trade at $137.25. Good fill-in trade following the
4th of July holiday two weeks ago helped move the cutout higher. Since
then however, movement has fallen off and last Thursday’s morning volume
was lackluster with only 234 loads trading hands. One bright spot
continues to be the cow markets, which are strong as a result of good
movement of trim and grind loads. Last Wednesday, 44 loads of trim and
82 loads of grind product sold.
That movement is reflective of strong
retail demand for ground beef products as consumers hunt for
value-priced protein at the supermarket. The high demand has maintained
cow beef cutouts well above year-ago levels. Last Thursday, cow cutout
values were up 66 cents to $116.82, and the 90 percent lean traded at
$144.70, while the 50 percent product moved at $55.62. The upward surge
in the Canadian dollar to near par with the U.S. dollar means that there
is less incentive for producers north of the border to ship their culls
to the south for processing. That has left a few northern packers with a
short supply and added to the willingness to pay more for cull cows.
Prices remain in the mid-$50s and could remain there well into the fall
if expected U.S. herd inventory numbers are reported near analyst’s
expectations. The inventory report, due out June 20, is expected to show
the smallest calf crop in years and perhaps a shift toward herd
building, one that has been stalled for the past year and-a-half as a
result of widespread drought last year and surging corn prices this
year. If retention numbers increase, it will lead to an even shorter
supply of available heifers this fall and reduce the number of cows
being sent to market later this year, adding further support to the cow
market.
Feeder cattle
Western Video Market Auction and Superior Livestock Auction both held
massive video auctions last week, setting the fall market in most
places. From July 9-11, Western Video Market held their auction in Reno,
NV, at the Silver Legacy Hotel and most lots in that auction sold well
considering weather conditions throughout the western U.S.
Approximately 155,000 head were offered, with
very good demand for heavy cattle over 700 lbs., most ready for
immediate or near delivery. Demand for cattle to put on feed is heaviest
in the north central states but feeders in California were ready for
cattle as well, with the futures looking good, keeping the heavier
cattle moving at good prices, mostly in the $108-$115 range.
Lighter cattle were a tough sell in the western states where drought
persists, but the lots offered for later delivery, mostly from
October-December, sold fairly well. Six weight steer and heifer calves
did better after the first day of the sale, but concerns over high feed
prices kept many buyers away from all but reputable cattle. Prices for
600-700 lb. steers stayed in the $110-$125 range, mostly $115-120.
Jerry York, WLJ fieldman, was at the auction headquarters in Reno during
the sale.
“We definitely saw the heavy cattle sell very well. The lighter cattle
for immediate delivery got pretty tough. There were a lot of no sales on
the lighter calves, just because the drought has a lot of guys worried
about where they’ll go with these cattle,” he said. “The lightweights
that did sell very well were all from good reputation outfits. It is
pretty typical to see those cattle coming out of higher performance
sires sell better, but this year, in some cases, they were the only ones
selling.”
York said that some lightweight black-hided cattle went for as high as
$138. “Again, the ones bringing top dollar and selling well were the
calves from top-reputation ranches. Value-added cattle also helped some
of the lighter cattle sell. The natural feeders were generally worth
three to five cents more. Quite a few Certified Angus Beef and a number
of age/source verified cattle were run through the auction and they all,
for the most part, sold very well.”
York also added that drought was not the only concern at this year’s
auction.
“Normally people will talk about the weather at sales and it will be the
biggest concern for ranchers, but this year I heard a lot of people talk
about high input costs and uncertainty over domestic security issues,”
he said. “ I think, overall, people were waiting to see how some of
these things panned out before they bought higher-priced cattle for
immediate delivery. It wasn’t just fears about lingering drought keeping
buyers from taking all the offerings.”
Superior Livestock held their annual “Week in the Rockies” video auction
July 9-14, and this year it was their largest auction to date with
330,000 head on offer. Prices at the Superior Auction followed those of
Western Video’s closely, although more cattle were offered from the
Plains states and eastern U.S. In the southern plains of TX, OK and NM,
prices seen during the Superior Auction were better than at local weekly
auctions, largely because of weather issues. While good moisture blesses
some areas of those states, flooding in large areas of eastern Oklahoma
and Texas has kept some muddy cattle going through the rings, and severe
drought in the Deep South has forced many cattle from the east into
auctions in the Plains. Demand at auctions for feeder cattle in all
Western and Midwestern states was good to very good, with prices being
up from previous sales in all cases.
In country auction markets, volume at most locations is seasonally low,
keeping even the lighter weight cattle going back on grass in strong
demand. Most demand is spurred by cattle feeder confidence in the corn
market staying down after the recent announcement of a larger corn
harvest estimate. Both corn and cattle futures for the remainder of 2007
are giving the feed yards some attractive margins and demand has
increased accordingly.
In Joplin, MO, last week 5,100 head of feeder cattle were sold, with
steers going for $3-6 higher at $106-122 for six to seven weights and
heifers were mostly steady to $3 higher in the same weight range at
$99-109.
Receipts in Oklahoma City were up sharply from two weeks earlier with
9,111 head sold, although down by nearly half from a year ago. Demand
was very good for all classes of cattle with a number of aggressive
out-of-state buyers attending. There are still some quality issues as in
the past few weeks at this sale, with a number of cattle coming from the
east and being quite thin, although last week the quality picked up
some. Both steers and heifers were $3-5 higher, with 600-700 lb. steers
selling at $117-$127.75, heifers about $10 lower. Heavier cattle also
sold very well, with all weights, include those over 1,000 lbs., selling
above $100.
Trade and demand were good in Abilene, TX, where 974 head sold. Prices
compared to the last sale were better on all cattle and feeders were
$2-6 higher. Feeder steers in the 600-700 lb. range sold at $105-116,
heifers roughly $10 lower. The 800-900 lb. feeder cattle were only a
couple dollars lower across the board compared to the lighter calves.
Prices were sharply higher since the last sale for all classes of cattle
in Clovis, NM, where 2,823 head were sold last week. Steers were selling
$7-11 higher and, in some cases, $13 higher. Heifers were mostly $6-8
higher and, in instances, up $10. Steers sold at $109-$113 for mostly
600 lb. calves, and the same for 700- 800 lb. cattle. Feeder heifers in
the 600-700 lb. range were $95-$98.50, with the same or slightly better
prices on 700-800 lb. cattle.
In Madras, OR, 668 head traded last week, with a number beginning to
come in because of short grass reserves. Feeder steers there sold at
$102-111 for 600-700 lb. cattle, nearly the same as 400-500 lb. calves
which were trading at $105-115.
Steers in Madera, CA, were selling for $89-99.50 for 600-700 lb. cattle,
with heifers at $82-91. Steers of 800-plus lbs. were trading at
$81-92.25.
CME feeder cattle contracts finished on July 12 with August feeder
cattle futures down 32 cents to finish at $1.14. November contracts
settled at $1.14, down 52 cents on the day. — WLJ
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