—Packers are losing money with cutout stalled below $148. Fed cattle trade was extremely slow last week. Packers were offering $92 and feeders were looking for $96. Futures markets started the week with a roar after a bullish cattle on feed report, but slowly declined by mid-week with the October contract at $96.95. The general tone of the fed cattle markets was that prices would be higher and it was apparent trade would take place Friday. There were roughly 2,500 head traded in the southern Plains early in the week at $95.50, JBS Swift was the buyer. Last Thursday morning, National Packers apparently had bid $95 and weren’t getting cattle bought. There was very little dressed trade and feeders were looking for $147-148. Feeders felt that packers had already worked through their contracted animals and were in need of cattle. Packers have been throwing feeders a few head fakes over the past few weeks with plant closures and dropping Saturday slaughter schedules. They were attempting to reduce production to bring the beef cutout values up. Ironically, daily slaughter last week showed that they haven’t slowed down much, with daily kills running over 125,000 head a day. Two weeks ago, there were 645,000 head processed. The week prior, there were 643,000 head processed and last week, they were on track to slaughter around 645,000-650,000 head. It was clear that packers had beef inventory that needed to be moved and many market watchers were expecting a beef fire sale. That had not occurred as of last Thursday. Packers were able to move a large volume without affecting the cutout value much. For the week ending Sept. 21, there were 8,157 loads traded and the composite cutout was $144.35. Over half the total trade volume was ungraded beef. Market economist Glen Grimes at University of Missouri pointed out that “everyone in the industry benefitted from the higher retail prices but the packer. The fed cattle prices for January- August were up 8.6 percent. The producer-retailer margin was up 7.8 percent, but the packers’ margin for the first eight months of 2007 was down 17.5 percent from 12 months earlier. In times with tight fed cattle supplies, the packers in the beef industry usually have to work with tighter margins.” Andy Gottschalk at HedgersEdge.com anticipated that packers would need to get used to more negative margins over the next three years. He said they were losing $35 a head as of last Thursday. Grimes also pointed out that cow slaughter for the year through the week ending Sept. 1 was up 8.1 percent from 2006. However, cow slaughter for the four-week period ending Sept. 1 was down 5.8 percent from a year earlier, but cow slaughter for the four-week period ending Sept. 2, 2007, was up 24.6 percent from 12 months earlier. “So even though cow slaughter recently has been below last year, it is still large compared to two years earlier. We do not believe cow/calf producers are changing the size of the cow herd very much in either direction,” he said. Seasonal increases in slaughter cow numbers in many areas of the country had packers readily filling their harvest schedules. However, the lack of demand from the grinding sector caused movement to be slow, which was expected to continue until prices were lowered. Last Thursday, the 90 percent lean was trading at $126.21 and the 50 percent trim was at $51.44, while the cow beef cutout was at $105.76. Feeder cattle The strength in the grain market and weather concerns were the main drivers in the feeder cattle market last week, despite concerns over reportedly tight supplies of calves coming to market. There are many in the grain industry who expect the corn crop will not come in as large as USDA has projected, which could lead to a rise in prices. In addition, export volume remains strong, cutting into already tight supplies despite what is expected to be a record crop. Last week, those concerns pushed Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December corn futures toward $3.90 a bushel, with many believing that $4 will be eclipsed in the near future as harvest progress continues to creep northward. The wheat trade is also starting to impact the feeder cattle market. Winter wheat planting is progressing now in the southern Plains where, according to USDA, 25 percent of the crop is now in the ground. If wheat prices weren’t regularly pushing limit higher on CBOT, there would likely be ample winter wheat grazing available. However, the $9.38 per bushel price makes wheat pasture grazing prospects questionable going into the fall ahead of stocker operations contracting for calves. With wheat prices at their best in recent memory, it becomes questionable how much will be available this year to lessen the cost of calf feeding before moving them into feedlots. The other variable starting to play a roll in buyer interest in feeder cattle is the seasonal temperature swings now starting to take their toll on calf health. Temperature swings of 30 degrees or more are making buyers more cautious in auction markets, and calves which have been weaned and preconditioned with at least one round of shots are selling at a premium to the fleshy loud lots being sold alongside, particularly in the high Plains region. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange last week, feeder cattle traded sideways to lower as a result of the upward movement in grains and despite the steady to higher cash fed cattle trade expected for the week. At the close last Thursday, feeder cattle contracts were mostly lower with the spot month September contract expiring in higher territory, up 22 points ending at $116.07. October was down 42 points at $115.50, while November contracts also lost 42 points to end the session at $115.82 and January declined 35 points to finish at $114.67. In cash market trade last week at El Reno, OK, feeder steers were steady to $1 lower. Feeder heifers sold steady, except for those over 800 lbs., which were $1-2 higher. Steer calves were called steady to $3 higher, with the most advance on heavier weights. Heifer calves moved $1-3 lower. Demand was reportedly moderate to good for feeder cattle, although the selection of feeder steers was not as attractive as the prior week with several light muscled cattle available. Calf demand was also called moderate to good with the best action of the day coming on long- weaned or preconditioned calves. Meanwhile, to the north in Joplin, MO, compared to the previous week, yearling feeder cattle sold fully steady. A larger supply of steer and heifer calves traded $1-4 lower.  Buyers were said to be wary and keenly listening for representation of calves and a description of their background and origin. The calf offering was very uneven as to quality and covered the full range, which is typical of early fall, but not typical for the Four State Area. In Dodge City, KS, feeder steers in the 300-650 lb. range and feeder heifers weighing from 300- 700 lbs. were sold in large enough numbers for a full market test but a higher undertone was noted. Feeder steers in the 650-950 lb. range were steady to $1 higher, while feeder heifers in the 700-800 lb. class were $1 higher. There was no test on heavier weights. Farther north in Bassett, NE, compared to the sale two weeks earlier, feeder steers were mostly $2 lower and feeder heifers sold steady to $2 higher with good buyer demand on all classes of cattle on the run, which was comprised primarily of reputation strings of light fleshed yearlings off grass. In La Junta, CO, last week, steer and heifer calves under 600 lbs. were called $2-4 higher with some instances of as much as $5 higher. Those cattle over 600 lbs. and yearling feeder steers sold steady, while yearling feeder heifers were $2 lower. At the market in Philip, SD, feeder steers over 600 lbs. sold mostly steady last week, while steer calves under 600 lbs. were called $2-3 lower. Heifer calves under 600 lbs. were $1-3 higher. Feeder heifers over 600 lbs. sold steady to $2 higher. There was reportedly good buyer attendance and the best demand came on load lots of reputation offerings. There was moderate to good demand on all other classes of cattle. Farther west, in Billings, MT, yearling feeder steers and heifers’ receipts remain seasonally light and not present in enough numbers for a good market test. However, steer and heifer calves were called mostly steady in a very light test with moderate to good demand for calves and yearlings. In Ogden, UT, feeder steers up to 850 lbs. were mixed last week, but reported to be mostly $4-5 lower, with some instances of as much as $10-15 lower on the lighter weights early in the sale. Steers weighing more than 850 lbs. were mostly steady. Feeder heifers were also mixed but mostly lower by as much as $6-8 with some instances of as much as $12-15 lower, while Holstein steers sold $3-4 lower. Farther south in Roswell, NM, last week, feeder steers were unevenly steady, while heifers under 600 lbs. sold steady to $2 lower and those over 600 lbs. were not offered in enough numbers to call a market trend. — WLJ

—Transportation and oversupply concerns plague market. Last week, Archer Daniels Midland Co. was passed as the largest producer of ethanol in the U.S. when Poet LLC started production at its new 65 million gallon plant in Portland, IN. The new plant, which will consume an estimated 22 million bushels of corn annually, will increase the company’s annual production to 1.1 billion gallons per year from 22 plants nationwide. The latest plant to come on line this year will boost ethanol availability in the U.S. to 7.2 billion gallons in 2007, a number which industry watchdogs point out exceeds demand of 6.7 billion gallons. In fact, a report issued earlier this year by analysts at the investment firm Lehman Brothers estimated the surplus at about 1 million gallons per day starting in the second half of 2007. The firm’s report attributed part of that to the ethanol plant construction boom, but said transportation bottlenecks are a bigger problem. The ethanol industry, which has faced increasing problems with distribution, now faces over- supply and dwindling margins which has led to a tightening of available capital for construction and expansion as well as a lower investment appeal for existing plants. “Margins certainly have tightened over the last year and will continue to do so in the near future,” said Poet CEO Jeff Broin last week as the company started its newest plant into production. In fact, financial industry analysts have painted a picture of the industry which is far more bleak. “We expect the relentless supply of new ethanol production capacity will lead to a 70 percent decline in margins by 2009,” wrote Bank of America analyst Eric K. Brown in a May 2007 research report on the industry. Ethanol and biodiesel production in the U.S. amounted to little more than a niche market for environmentally conscious consumers prior to the implementation of the government imposed mandate which required U.S. refiners to use 7 billion gallons of renewable fuels annually by 2012. Since then, the industry has been plagued with distribution problems because ethanol cannot be shipped through existing pipelines which criss-cross the nation and are used for moving petroleum products. Instead, because of its corrosive nature, ethanol must be moved by truck or railcar from mostly rural central U.S. production areas to large, often coastal cities for refining or consumption. The transportation issue has led to bottlenecks and increasing costs for the industry. On top of these woes, many energy industry experts are now saying the ethanol business needs to stand on its own, without the lucrative government subsidies which have spurred its growth. In fact, a meat industry-funded study released last week shows that ethanol production, particularly when funded by a government subsidy, may not be the panacea envisioned by some well meaning lawmakers. In fact, the economists who conducted the study found that ethanol is viable without government subsidy so long as the price of oil remains above $65 per barrel. Last week, crude oil set new record highs above $81 a barrel. “Even without subsidies, ethanol production would be expanding at a significant rate due to high gasoline prices and the improvements in ethanol production technology in recent years,” the study’s authors said in their report. The report, authored by Thomas E. Elam, president of FarmEcon.com, and commissioned by a coalition which included American Meat Institute, The National Turkey Federation and the National Chicken Council, argues that government ethanol subsidies should be tied directly to gasoline prices rather than the current flat rate paid to producers. “In fact, if oil prices go high enough, the government should consider taxing ethanol used for fuel to alleviate the effects of ethanol demand on food prices,” Elam wrote. “At $80 per barrel, the U.S. food sector will find itself paying over $5 per bushel for corn. China, having seen what ethanol is doing to food costs, has banned further development of grain-based ethanol production.” Elam contends that the federal 54 cent per gallon ethanol subsidy has the indirect effect of increasing the cost of ethanol and food production by increasing grain prices across the board. “...the federal ethanol subsidy raises the breakeven corn price for ethanol plants by about $1.42 per bushel. If ethanol producers expand production until they bid corn prices up to their breakeven corn price point at today’s gasoline price level, it will take corn prices to near $4.75 per bushel, about double the average price of corn before the increase in gasoline prices,” Elam found. “At the current 12 billion bushels of annual corn production, that amounts to an increased corn cost for all U.S. users and our corn export customers of $17 billion per year. These costs are going up even as corn production increases. Included in those paying higher costs are ethanol producers themselves.” He points out as a part of his research that the industry continues to push for 100 percent market penetration for 10 percent ethanol blend gasoline, known as E10. However, Elam notes that 100 percent penetration may not be feasible. “At 100 percent penetration, the ethanol industry will require over 50 million acres of corn every year and total corn acres will need to be over 120 million. Until 2007, total corn acres rarely exceeded 80 million acres,” Elam pointed out. “Clearly, corn could further displace other crops, reducing their supply and raising their prices.” More specifically, he said, 100 percent E10 penetration would require 200 million tons of corn annually, the equivalent of 10 percent share of global grain supply, creating a significant spike in global food costs. However, according to Elam’s study, the actual cost of the ethanol production subsidy alone may be much higher than anyone anticipated. “In total, the costs of ethanol paid by taxpayers, fuel purchasers and the food system is about $31 billion in 2007, or about $4.40 per gallon of ethanol produced. Corrected for energy content of ethanol relative to gasoline, this is equivalent to a wholesale gasoline price of $6.67 per gallon. Ethanol is not a cheap source of energy; it is about three times as expensive as gasoline,” Elam stated in his report. “Created at a time when the ethanol industry was not profitable, changing circumstances have rendered the current fixed-payment federal ethanol subsidy program obsolete.” — John Robinson, WLJ Editor    

27, 2004 Brazilian exports doubled Brazil exported nearly $243 million in beef products during August, a rise of 121.5 percent compared to August of 2003, according to Brazil's Beef Exporters Association. Through August, the industry has exported $1.55 billion worth of beef in 2004, more than it exported all last year. Roughly 80 percent of exports are bulk beef products, with the remainder processed products. Brazil's major customers this year are Russia, the Netherlands and Chile. ‘Hot and Beefy' promo planned Sobik's Subs, a Florida chain of franchised restaurants run by Quality Restaurant Ventures, will roll out a "Hot and Beefy at Sobik's" promotion beginning next month. Three new hot beef sandwiches will be added to the chain's menu—Italian Beef, Russian Beef and Hot Beef and Cheddar. Sobik's already offers a Cheese Steak sandwich and meatballs in their menu's beef segment. Quiznos, Checkoff partnering In a partnership with the Beef Checkoff Program, Quiznos Sub is introducing a new steakhouse Beef Dip Sub. The promotion began Sept. 6 and runs through Oct. 17 at participating Quiznos Sub stores in the U.S. During the promotion, the beef sub will be promoted nationally via radio and TV spots, and newspaper coupons in freestanding inserts. The Beef Checkoff logo will appear on all marketing materials. "We are extremely happy to be partnering with the Cattlemen's Beef Board to promote our new Steakhouse Beef Dip sub," said Trey Hall, chief marketing officer at Quiznos Sub. "We want to help support the great beef produced across the U.S. by America's cattle farmers and ranchers." Krystal expanding in Texas Three franchise groups have inked deals with Chattanooga, TN-based Krystal Company to open 18 new Krystal hamburger restaurants across Texas over the next four years. Texas currently has two Krystal restaurants—one in Beaumont and one in the Waco/Killeen area. The first of the new restaurants are set to debut in Dallas and Houston in November, followed by Austin early next year. The chain is known for serving its specialty of small, square steamed hamburgers. George Jones' burgers unveiled Williams Sausage Company recently announced it is adding a couple new hamburger products to its George Jones brand name product line that are scheduled to hit customers starting sometime next month. The two new beef products are hamburger steaks and hamburger patties marinated with George Jones Good on Anything Sauce. The new beef products will be sold in boxes of 12 4-ounce patties or six half-pound steaks. McD's raises dividend 38 percent McDonald's Corp. hiked its annual dividend 15 cents, from 40 cents to 55 cents, payable on December 1 to shareholders of record as of November 15. The dividend has more than doubled in two years, from 23.5 cents in 2002. The payout to shareholders will total nearly $690 million. "(The) 38 percent dividend increase—our second largest since 1980—reflects our ongoing confidence in the business and is another sign that we're making significant progress revitalizing McDonald's," said Charlie Bell, McDonald's CEO. Jack in the Box expanding San Diego-based Jack in the Box Inc. projects same-store sales increases of between 2.5-3 percent in fiscal 2005 and will debut 45 to 50 new Jack in the Box stores, remodel another 50 and open approximately 75 more Qdoba Mexican Grill locations. The new stores will be a mix of franchised and company-owned locations. The company said that it will beat analysts' projections for the first quarter of 2005, although it will miss by a penny projections for the fourth quarter of this year. Jack in the Box also said that it expects its profit margin to increase by 80 basis points due in part to lower beef prices and development of new premium products. The company is also testing a new casual dining format in several U.S. markets, with Dallas scheduled to be next. The others are San Diego and Bakersfield, CA, and Boise, ID. Jack in the Box will operate over 2,000 restaurants by the end of the fourth quarter, the company indicated.

20, 2004 Thomas D. Guerin Thomas D. Guerin passed away on August 25, 2004 in Roseburg, OR. Born in Oakland, CA, Guerin knew nothing about cattle and ranching when he took over his father's ranch in 1943. Guerin had a commercial beef cattle operation and in his early years operated a small feedlot and sold locker beef to the hospitals and nursing homes. Recently, after he fell and broke his hip, all he wanted was to get well so that he could get back to the ranch and see his cattle. Guerin also served on numerous boards pertaining to Agriculture and Agriculture Conservation. He is survived by his wife, Arlene, Myrtle Point, OR; daughters Cheryl (Bill), Tigard, OR, and Anne, Langlois, OR; step daughter, Dani Hanson, Myrtle Point; and several grandsons and two great-grandsons.

20, 2004 OBC exec. moving on The Oklahoma Beef Council (OBC) announced last week that Michael Kelsey has resigned as the group's executive director, effective October 29, 2004, and that he has accepted the position of executive vice president of the Nebraska Cattlemen. Kelsey has been with the OBC since August of 2000 as executive director and has played an important role in guiding Oklahoma's beef industry through some of its key milestones and achievements. Programs and activities of the OBC will continue under the leadership of Melissa Morton, collections and compliance officer, who has been named interim executive director. The OBC Board of Directors is forming a search committee to accept and review resumes for the executive director position. Resumes are currently being accepted and the search committee will begin review on October 15, 2004. Applications may be sent to Executive Director Search Committee, c/o James Campbell, 2312 Exchange Ave., Oklahoma City, OK 73108. Morton's growing by five Morton's Restaurant Group, New Hyde Park, NY, will add new upscale steakhouse restaurants in Chicago; Atlantic City, NJ; Charlotte, NC; Bethesda, MD; and Fort Lauderdale, FL, the company recently announced. The Chicago restaurant will be the second in that city's downtown. The new facility in Charlotte will also be that city's second Morton's restaurant, and the new addition in Washington, DC, will be that metro area's sixth such restaurant. In Atlantic City, the restaurant will be inside Caesar's Hotel and Casino, while the Fort Lauderdale Morton's will occupy Las Olas River House, a downtown luxury mixed-use condo complex. The additions will bring its count of upper-end steakhouses to 70 worldwide. CKE sales soar, profits plunge CKE Restaurants, the operator of the Carl's Jr. and Hardee's chains, reported strong same-store sales growth at both chains during the second quarter, but registered a net loss of $11.4 million in the period, which ended August 9. Same-store sales rose 8.1 percent at Carl's Jr. and 6.2 percent at Hardee's. The overall loss was attributable to payments to settle three wage and hour class action lawsuits, a previously announced pre-payment premium on outstanding debt and other one-time charges. Without those, the company would have reported a net profit of approximately $10.8 million, or 17 cents per share. The company operates 3,206 franchised or company-owned restaurants in 44 states and 14 countries, including 2,067 Hardee's, 1,016 Carl's Jr.'s and 105 La Salsa Fresh Mexican Grill locations. BK's August sales stronger Miami-based Burger King's company owned stores saw an 11.1 percent same-store sales increase in August, while franchised stores grew at a 4.5 percent rate, for an overall growth rate of 5.1 percent over the year-ago period. The announcement marks the seventh consecutive month of positive same-store growth results. Among the new products driving the chain's growth, has been the new Angus beef hamburger products. Kroger Q2 earnings decline Beset by labor unrest that hammered sales at the company's Ralph's and Food 4 Less stores in California and rising product costs, Cincinnati-based Kroger reported net earnings of $142.4 million for the second quarter ended August 14, down from $190.4 million in the same quarter a year ago. The company said its earnings were affected not only by the recently resolved strikes and their aftermath, but also by a premium of $15.3 million paid to retire $750 million in debt. Sales increased 5.1 percent to $13 billion in the quarter, but same-store sales growth, excluding gasoline, was an anemic 0.6 percent. Without the California stores included same-store sales grew 1.1 percent, which was called respectable. All breed tour in Lisbon, ND Fourteen seedstock operations representing the Angus, Buelingo, Chiangus, Longhorn, Lowline, Red Angus, Simmental, and Shorthorn breeds will be featured on the 2004 All Breeds Cattle Tour. The 18th annual event will be held Oct. 4-5 in the Lisbon, ND, area. "The All Breeds Cattle Tour is an excellent way to view the herds of multiple operations and compare multiple breeds in a short amount of time," said Tracey Koester, of the North Dakota Stockmen's Association. Visits will include: Melroe Farms, Gwinner; Alamo Farms, Ransom Angus, Bear Creek Beef, Wendel Livestock, and Schmit Farm, Oakes; Crete Grain Westgate and James Valley Grain, Crete; and Spring Valley Angus, LaMoure, ND, where a Pfizer Excede demonstration will be conducted. The final tour stop will be at the Ransom County Expo Center in Lisbon, where exhibits from Black Tie Simmental, Erdmann Angus and Hieggelke Simmentals will be displayed. For more information call 701/223-2522.

13, 2004 McDonald's sees its 16th consecutive increase McDonald's Corp. reported its 16th consecutive increase in monthly same-store sales despite a slight drop in Europe, reports the Associated Press. The fast-food chain said its comparable sales were up 7.2 percent at its U.S. restaurants and 3.9 percent worldwide. Sales in Europe fell 2.1 percent, a drop the company blamed on weak performance in Germany, poor weather, and a decline in tourism across the continent. The latest strong performance at U.S. McDonald's was credited to improved service, marketing, and expanded menu variety, including the recent launch of Chicken Selects. McDonald's stock rose 52 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $27.90 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange, September 9. Beef spending up $22B in 10 years Consumers will spend $68 billion on beef in 2004, according to a report released from the Texas Beef Council. If the beef industry were a private corporation, those revenues would rank it ninth, right behind IBM, in the Fortune 500 list. The 2004 figures represent a $22 billion increase over 1995, which was three years before the beef checkoff program helped stabilize beef demand after 20 years of decline. The projections were made by Cattle-Fax, the beef industry economic analysis arm. Packers charged with fraud Criminal charges have been brought against three Canadian meat processors who sold possibly tainted meat. The provincial police in Ontario, Canada, brought criminal fraud charges against Walter Clare and his sons, Jeffrey and Jay. All three are owners of Alymer Meat Packers Inc., a slaughter and meat-processing company in the southwest region of the province. The men were also criminally charged under the Food and Drugs Act with selling meat unfit for human consumption and labeling meat in a manner that was false, misleading, or deceptive regarding its safety. They are scheduled to appear in St. Thomas court on October 19, 2004. The company was separately charged with fraud and conspiracy to commit fraud. The government alleges that Alymer employees last summer knowingly accepted and processed cattle that were dead when they arrived at the plant. Meat from the carcasses was then mixed with carcasses from animals that entered the plant alive. The plant's license was suspended after a search August 21, 2003. Tyson makes FORTUNE list Tyson Foods has been listed by FORTUNE magazine as one of America's fastest growing companies. The Springdale, AR-based company ranks 44th on FORTUNE's list of "The 100 Fastest Growing Companies." Tyson is the highest ranked food company and the only meat protein company to be included. "It's an honor to be recognized for the progress we've been making since our acquisition of IBP three years ago," said John Tyson, chairman and CEO. "We're continuing our aggressive campaign to increase our value-added product sales over the next three to five years and believe our recently unveiled 'Powered by Tyson' marketing campaign will boost our efforts." Over the past three years Tyson has experienced a 41 percent earnings-per-share growth, 49 percent increase in revenue and a total return of 32 percent. Aussie beef exports slip Beef exports from Australia, a major global exporter, slipped a little in August from July, but remain well up on shipments in August 2003, according to the latest official figures. Exports to the U.S. grew sharply in August from July, while exports to Japan fell, resulting in the U.S. overtaking Japan as the major beef export destination, the figures show. The figures confirm the overwhelming reliance of these two major markets on the overall trade. Total beef exports in the first eight months of this year of 591,243 metric tons were up 7.4 percent from the year-earlier period, mostly reflecting sharply higher exports to Japan. Carl's Jr. on the road Fast-food burger chain Carl's Jr., Carpintera, CA, is taking its signature hamburgers, fries and several other menu items beverages on the road to select football games this season. Carl's Jr. traveling Star Diner restaurant-on-wheels visited the University of Utah versus Texas A&M tailgate party on Thursday, September 2. Typically, the Star Diner will stay fairly close to its home base in California, but Carl's Jr. believes the Utah trek was a fun, innovative way to allow loyal customers, and potential customers, to sample its Six Dollar Burger, Famous Star hamburger, and Western Bacon Cheeseburger. The diner's final destination will be Magna, UT, where a recently opened Carl's Jr. franchise "adopted" a local high school. The restaurant will kick off assistance for Cypress High School with a visit from the Star Diner to raise funds for the athletic department.

13, 2004 The past few weeks have been a real seesaw when it comes U.S. beef regaining the Japanese market. One week the news is that it's gonna take 100 percent BSE testing to access the market. Then, we hear the Japanese are considering excluding cattle under 20 months old with specified risk materials removed. It has been a long summer for USDA and trade negotiators, but it does appear that they are making some significant headway. Last week, a Japanese panel of food safety experts said that they can't find any scientific justification to test cattle for BSE that are younger than 20 months old. There is speculation that the report, requested by the Japanese Food Safety Commission (FSC), would give that agency reason to drop the government's requirement of 100 percent BSE testing on that class of cattle, therefore easing the ban on U.S. beef. The Japanese testing hangup on the younger cattle is because they claim to have found BSE in a 21-month-old animal. Canada and the European Union have all been comfortable with not testing cattle 30 months and younger, which the U.S. has maintained a strong position on. After last week's news, it appears that the Japanese may settle on some other age threshold soon. That could be somewhere between 20 and 30 months old. Then the question will be how to determine that age. Most likely, those efforts will focus on dentition, more commonly known as "mouthing," and/or bone ossification tests, which have been considered unreliable in the past. The FSC concluded last Thursday that current testing technology isn't sensitive enough to detect the bovine illness in cows younger than 20 months, and that excluding the young and newborn cattle from testing "won't increase the risk" of transmission to humans. President Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi are scheduled to meet next week during the United Nations General Assembly in New York. It appears that the beef industry will get some special attention in this meeting. President Bush could create a nice positive outlook for the beef industry by announcing that some agreement with the Japanese government on beef imports has been made. There is also speculation that the U.S. and Japan may have already come to some sort of tentative agreement about beef trade that will be announced during this meeting. We have been told that heads of state don't necessarily like surprises during these types of meetings, which are usually well orchestrated so there are no curve balls thrown. It will be interesting to see where this age line is drawn. The U.S. has been importing beef from Canada from cattle under 30 months of age for nearly a year. If there is a special age threshold made for the Japanese market, what will the ramifications be for Canadian beef. It appears that 24 months may be where the line is drawn and that the bone ossification test will be the testing method used. If that is the case, will it send a message to consumers that there is some question over beef that is between 24 and 30 months of age that they have already consumed? Anti-beef consumer groups may have a problem with that idea. Also would the 24-month-old criteria be temporary, to the extent that USDA has tested nearly 50,000 head of cattle without any BSE turning up. If we reach 250,000 head, will that mean that the U.S. is BSE free and that we won't have to test at all for the Japanese market? Even though Japan has exposed a crack in their demands for 100 percent BSE testing, there are still a lot of un-answered questions about the protocol in exporting beef to Japan. There has been a variety of signals coming from Japan, with this latest report and reactions from several weeks ago when a group of Japanese officials toured the U.S. on a fact finding mission in which they claimed they wanted full compliance on the testing issue. For the most part, this trade issue appears very political, which is clearly where the remedies will come from. This next meeting with Bush and the Japanese Prime Minister hopefully exposes the politics, and gives Bush something to show agriculture, which is an important campaign issue in this election. It's encouraging that Japan is starting to back away from their testing demands. — PETE CROW

13, 2004 New cattle cost management software Cattleman's Calculator, Inc., announced the introduction of a new version of its successful and industry accepted Cattleman's Calculator livestock cost-projection software, in use of 16 years, which can now be used on Microsoft Windows handheld Pocket PC. In effect, this new software program creates a handy new cost management tools for the cattle industry: an easy-to-use Windows-based pocket computer that enables cattle ranchers to make off-site cost calculations about cattle operations and integrate these cost projections with their ranch, bank, or computer and financial records for improved cost control and management. Calculations can be saved in the Pocket PC handheld computer and later transferred to a Microsoft spreadsheet. Another new feature is the print capability. For more information visit www.cattlemanscalculator.com. Remote swing gate opener unveiled Tallahassee, FL-based GTO has an affordable way of automating field gates, even if they are out of range of common power sources. The do-it-yourself Mighty Mule automatic swing gate opener is not just an accessory for the rich and famous. Whether it's for a yard, field or orchard, the Mighty Mule makes getting vehicles, tractors and implements through gates affordable and simple. Strong as a mule, the Mighty Mule operates on a low voltage battery that's constantly recharged so it will still work when the power is out. It also works in extreme weather conditions. A Mighty Mule gate can be opened and closed using a transmitter similar to a garage door opener and other accessories include a programmable digital keypad, and an automatic gate lock to provide peace-of-mind security. For gates far from a power source, the optional solar panel will keep the gate's battery charged. For more information about the Mighty Mule line of automatic swing gate openers, the many types and specifications of gates it will handle visit www.gtoinc.com or call 800/543-1236. New worm gear winches Controlled movement of loads with just one hand on the crank handle is what you'll get with Dutton-Lainson Company's worm gear winches. Engineered to provide positive holding of the load while raising or lowering makes the D-L worm gear winches ideal for any application where safe, economical one-man operation is required. Each size is available with a choice of standard winch handle, or with a loop drive. Unlike standard ratchet winches, which depend on a ratchet to prevent uncontrolled reeling-out of cable, the reel on D-L worm gear winches automatically cease turning whenever cranking is stopped. There is no freewheeling mode, and no special mechanism needed to stop reel movement. In addition, worm gear winches do not require a minimum load for operation. All gears are heat treated high carbon steel, and bearings on the drive shaft are permanently lubricated to assure long, trouble-free service life. The D-L line of worm gear winches includes eight models in two sizes: 1,500 lb. (rated dead weight capacity), and a 2,000 lb. capacity. New Lepto vaccine unveiled Pfizer Animal Health last week announced it has been approved to market and distribute Spirovac, a vaccine that helps provide protection against Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar hardjo (Lepto hardjo-bovis). Spirovac contains inactivated whole-cell cultures of hardjo bovis and is approved for administration to open, pregnant and/or lactating cows and heifers, as well as to healthy calves as young as 4 weeks of age. Efficacy studies demonstrate that Spirovac prevents leptospires from harboring in protective sites such as the kidneys and reproductive tract. Additional studies show that Spirovac prevents urinary shedding and does not override maternal-derived antibodies (MDAs). When administered prebreeding, Spirovac can aid in the prevention of in utero transmission of hardjo-bovis bacteria, thus helping prevent the birth of calves born infected with hardjo-bovis. Unique to most leptospiral vaccines, Spirovac has a proven 12-month duration of immunity. For more information, contact a veterinarian, animal health supplier or Pfizer Animal Health representative. New hydraulic push manure spreader Kuhn Knight, Inc. of Brodhead, Wisconsin, adds a new line of hydraulic push manure spreaders to their proven line of solid/semi-solid manure spreaders. The new ProPush features piggyback hydraulic cylinders and a heavy-duty push panel for ultimate simplicity for manure hauling and spreading. The hydraulic cylinder ProPush design means no apron chains, fewer moving parts, simplicity, fast unloading, and a more dependable service life during cold winters. The hydraulic ProPush system has been tested and proven for the heaviest applications. Other features include one-piece solid poly sides, two-piece solid poly floor, and removable beater panels. The poly sides and floor reduce material build-up and the removable beaters allow the spreader to be easily used for stockpiling manure. ProPush spreaders are offered in 440 and 540 heaped cubic foot capacities as trailer models. For more information contact Kuhn Knight, Inc. at 608/897-2131 or Info@kuhnknight.com.

13, 2004 $18M in assistance proposed As part of the new '2004 Ewe Lamb Replacement and Retention Payment Program' the USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) has proposed providing up to $18 million to sheep and lamb producers who have recently experienced reduced production and flock size, low prices, and poor market conditions. This proposed program is designed to encourage the replacement and retention of ewe lamb breeding stock by giving direct cash payments to impacted producers. In order to qualify, producers must have been impacted during the one-year period from August 1, 2003 through July 31, 2004. Sheep and lamb operations may apply in person or via mail, telephone, or fax to FSA county offices once the application period is announced. The application period will follow the closing of two comment periods. Comments on the program specifics must be turned in by October 7. Comments on information collection in this rule must be received by November 8. Comments can be mailed to Grady Bilberry, director, Price Support Division, Farm Service Agency, USDA, STOP 0512 Room 4095-S, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-0512; e-mail: danielle_cooke@wdc.fsa.usda.gov; fax: 202/690-3307. Interstate transport amendment proposed USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is proposing to require livestock facilities that handle sheep and goats in interstate commerce to follow certain procedures to minimize the potential spread of scrapie. The approval process will ensure that certain uniform practices relating to the identification, record keeping, and handling of sheep and goats are followed. Notice of the proposal was published in the Aug. 26 Federal Register. Public comments will be accepted by FSIS until October 25. ASI budgets unanimously approved The American Sheep Industry Association (ASI) Board of Directors has unanimously approved the 2004-2005 budgets to fund services, programs and operations of the national organization. Fifty-six certified voters were given the annual responsibility of reviewing and casting their votes for the next fiscal year budgets. Three ballots were cast. The first ballot was for the approval of the American Wool Trust budget for the fiscal year beginning October 1 and running through September 30, 2005. Secondly, approval was sought for the Fund II budget of ASI for the legislative and membership activities of the association as well as non-wool trust and association services. The final board vote was in regard to the dues assessment rate. It was recommended that the rate remain the same as the current year—three cents per stock sheep and $6 per member. MPR changes approved Urgings by the American Sheep Industry Association (ASI) and state affiliates to modify the Livestock Mandatory Price Reporting (MPR) regulations as they apply to domestic and imported boxed lamb cut sales have been successful. USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) issued its final rule in a recent issue of the Federal Register saying that the new reports will be available starting November 1. Two definitions have been amended. The definition of "carlot-based" is being changed to include language to limit carlot-based sales of boxed lamb cuts to transactions between a buyer and a seller consisting of 1,000 pounds or more of boxed lamb items. The definition of "importer" reduces the volume level of annual lamb imports establishing a person as an importer to 2,500 metric tons of lamb products per year, down from 5,000 metric tons. Menu study shows lamb's use in trendsetting restaurants A recent analysis of lamb on restaurant menus shows that lamb represents more than 10 percent of the protein mentions of high profile, white tablecloth restaurants on Food Beat Inc.'s "Trendspotters" database. Not surprisingly, 84 percent of the mentions of lamb are as entrees, with several lamb appetizers, salads, soups, and sandwiches as well. Trendspotter restaurant menus often highlighted ingredients form local area or regional flavors. Some menu items noted included: • Dijon Crusted Colorado Lamb Chops, Chef Allen's, Miami Beach, FL • Three Preparations of Iowa Lamb, Goodfellow's, Minneapolis, MN • Roasted Rack of Colorado Lamb, Mel's Restaurant & Bar, Denver, CO • Sweet Garlic Crusted Oregon Lamb Chops, Painted Table, Seattle, WA • Wood Grilled Virginia Lamb Chops, Café Annie, Houston, TX Sheep shearers wanted The American Sheep Industry Association (ASI) is compiling a sheep shearer database, which will contain information ranging from a shearer's contact information to what services, supplies and level of skills he or she provides. The organization kicked off the project in mid-August, and said it was needed because of producers having a hard time finding people to shear their sheep for this fall. For more information, contact Bob Padula at 320/269-7973 or by e-mail at padula@starband.net.

—Findings could prompt movement on grazing buyout proposal. The findings of a recent study commissioned by National Center for Conservation Science and Policy (NCCSP), an Ashland, OR-based environmental group, will be included in a U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) analysis of grazing in the Cascade-Siskiyou National Monument in southern Oregon. Ranchers, who have long been battling to keep cattle on the land, could face severe economic hardship if cattle are forced out of the area. The latest report in the long-running dispute could mean that cattle graziers will be the next group forced out of the monument. The study, released last Monday, was conducted by 10 environmental scientists who worked in cooperation with BLM scientists and Oregon State University researchers to conduct the three- year study which was funded by the World Wildlife Fund. What the researchers concluded was that areas which were heavily grazed by cattle showed significant impacts. As a result, the environmentalists concluded that commercial grazing of cattle is incompatible with the goals contained within the proclamation made by the Clinton administration when the monument was created. Specifically, the research team found that mixed conifers, oak woodlands, small springs and riparian areas showed signs of livestock damage, including soil compaction, reduction of streamside vegetation, increased delivery of sediment to streams, elevated temperatures and reduced dissolved oxygen levels in springs. Small mammals showed the greatest losses from grazing with 38 percent lower cumulative biomass (total weight) and 20 percent lower abundance in heavily grazed areas. Livestock-related losses were greatest to harvest mice, woodrats and long-tailed voles. Livestock grazing may have negative effects on predator-prey dynamics by reducing abundance of small mammals that are important prey of the threatened northern spotted owl in southwest Oregon, particularly woodrats and deer mice. And, bird communities in heavily grazed areas had fewer long-distance migrants, foliage gleaners and shrub-nesting species, but higher numbers of ground nesters. Small springs used heavily by livestock had significantly higher temperatures and lower dissolved oxygen concentrations. The researchers presented the findings to BLM officials last week who will include the results in their own analysis due out later this year. “We’re incorporating their findings with all the information we received that’s pertinent to evaluating rangeland health and whether grazing is compatible with the proclamation,” said John Gerritsma, Ashland Resource Area manager for the BLM’s Medford District. The same proclamation which created the monument in 2000 directed BLM officials to retire grazing allotments if they were found to be incompatible with “protecting objects of biological interest.” Prior to the release of the report, public land grazing has been a touchy subject in the region. Last year, a proposal was floated in Congress by Oregon’s two senators to buy out grazing rights in the monument, a move supported by Oregon Cattlemen’s Association. However, the proposal never made it to the floor during the vote. “I think buyouts should be rare,” Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith, R-OR, said last year when announcing the legislation. “But these circumstances are unique and are putting the squeeze on our ranchers. This legislation is needed to keep them in business and in the saddle. Instead of turning to the courts, two interested parties found common ground to solve this problem. That’s the Oregon way and a great basis for legislation.” Andy Kerr, director of National Public Lands Grazing Campaign, a group which is also working to retire public lands grazing permits, said he is hopeful the bill can be reintroduced before the end of the year. “We hope to get the legislation introduced in the next few months,” Kerr said. “The bill is what we call a ‘two-fer,’ it has bi-partisan support from Oregon’s two senators, one Republican and one Democrat, and it contains something that opposing sides (ranchers and environmentalists) want. Politicians love that and we are optimistic this bill can make it through the congressional gauntlet.” He said time is of the essence in the matter and it would be best for everyone involved in the matter if it is resolved before the release of the BLM study this fall, which he believes will reach similar conclusions to those reported in the NCCSP study . “We want to compensate the ranchers for these leases,” he said. “Is that what the ranchers want? No, it’s not their first choice; they love their work, but they see the handwriting on the wall.” Kerr said the congressional proposal to retire the grazing leases in the monument includes $300 per permitted animal unit month. In addition, he said the Soda Mountain Wilderness Council, another involved environmental organization, will also include what Kerr called a “significant confidential payment,” if the measure makes it through Congress. “It’s critical that this be passed before BLM releases their study because they will want to change how things are done. There will be shorter lease periods, ranchers will have to wait longer in the spring to turn their cattle out, streams will have to be fenced, and BLM will want guys on horseback out there to herd cattle away from riparian areas. None of that’s good for the ranchers and it will be harder to get compensation for these guys. Nobody wants that; we want an equitable solution for the ranchers,” Kerr said. — John Robinson, WLJ Editor